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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Sandown Moir Stakes Day
5TH SEPTEMBER
Now posted with wet track information and a punting plan or voucher back offer

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Decorum
    Randwick
    Aug 28, 2026

    The 2.5 length 4th in trial 3

    -5.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 61st of the session

    Summary

    Lightly raced NOTE NOW GELDED 4yo with his best in front of him, and this trial was all about a late "explosion" that has him on point for his return. -10.9 and -5.7 first two sections, and -2.4, -2.5 in the 200 increments from the 600 to 200, but +3.0 last 200 was blistering meaning a 5.5 length turn of foot. That's super! He bumped into subsequent Group 1 winner ATTICA on debut last September when -4.1 lengths below benchmark, and he returned February with a -1.1 win at Warwick Farm ranked 3rd on the day. A continuation of that trendline would see him taking beating when first up placed right.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 05/09

    Lord Remlap
    Beaumont
    Aug 3, 2026

    The 1.8 length winner of Trial 2

    -4.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 7th on the day

    Summary

    Unbeaten 4yo whose 3 wins to date has seen a range of -2.9 on debut and -4.4 both at Scone, before -3.2 at Kenso with the race matrix suggesting closer to -2.2 range, but of note in all of those wins he "switched off" when hitting the lead and tapering late, with the visual clearly showing a horse still learning. This trial suggests good improvement. -11.3 at the 800 was 7.3 lengths from the lead, before -5.1 and -1.6 last two sections. The impressive part was the turn of foot going from -2.5 to +0.8 from the 400 to 200. Will probably have another trial, but with a BM rating of just 66 he can keep the streak alive without surprise.

    Subsequently: First up winner Randwick 05/09

    Matusalem
    Randwick
    Aug 8, 2026

    The 0.4 length 2nd in Race 7

    -0.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent 2nd up run after a good 203 day break, but not really coming up last prep. Was beaten must 3 lengths first up in a strong 1400 despite being $201 in a race the matrix suggested was stronger than the IVR figure. Here -3.2 at the 800 when 4.8 lengths from the lead, before a big 9 length squeeze with +5.8 from the 800 to 400. Last 400 was +1.8 and included a 1.9 length flat spot slowdown from the 400 to 200. The Premiers Cup in a fortnight over 2000 looks a logical progression and if he holds this figure - likely - he should remain deep in the finish.

    Subsequently: 2nd Randwick 22/08 then winner Wyong Cup 04/09

    Beautiful You
    Rosehill
    Aug 7, 2026

    The 0.7 length winner of trial 8

    -5.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 13th of the session

    Summary

    A modest IVR figure, but top 13 of a "serious" session full of stakes winning city horses, and the best of the 5 heats over 1030 metres says this unraced filly can go straight to the races and take a power of beating. -5.7 before +1.8 stalking the lead meant a booming 7.5 length mid race squeeze. She tapered late going -6.3 while winning the heat without being pushed. 

    Subsequently: Beaten a nose on debut Wyong 16/08 at $7:50 then winner Canberra 04/09

    Natural Fling
    Caulfield
    May 9, 2026

    The 3 length winner of Race 1

    -2.0 lengths below benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    Very nice debut despite a modest IVR time. Firstly ran right to her tight price off sharp trials, and secondly made the top ten on the day, and thirdly over 1100 which is more of a test. -0.1 and -0.5 first two sections on soft ground was good speed, and of her -4.3 last 400, -4.0 of that was just the last 200. Whatever the combination of conditioning drop off and "having the race won" was, it strongly suggests there's further improvement to come. This was also seen via the 8th best last 600, but just the 24th best last 200 of the day. At this time of year, anything -1 to benchmark is usually a winning 2yo IVR figure.

    Subsequently: 2nd Gold Coast to THE NEXT EPISODE 22/05 and spelled. First up Caulfield winner 15/08.

    Emperor Tzu
    Flemington
    Jul 18, 2026

    The 0.4 length 2nd in Race 4

    -0.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Deep into his prep and surprised the market with this narrow defeat and clear PB, but the performance was "real" after poor runs on bog heavy ground and then the Ballarat synthetic. "Put into the race" early going +3.8 lengths above benchmark at the 800 but still 4 lengths from the lead in the fast race shape. -2.0 in the mid race and -2.1 last 400. This included a length slowdown from the 400 to 200, but picked up a length late under full pressure. With a benchmark rating of just 65, he only needs to holds this figure to be doubling his win tally shortly. 

    Subsequently: 2nd Sandown 18/08 then winner Sandown 02/09

    Leonchroi
    Caulfield
    Jul 25, 2026

    The 0.7 length 2nd in Race 8

    -2.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 12th on the day

    Summary

    Shocked the market placing at bolters odds, but was just 2nd up off a "nothing" mile run at Sandown on bottomless wet ground, and it coming off his only prep as a stayer, so a new level this time in is highly likely. -8.0 lengths below benchmark at the 800 had him 6.7 lengths from the lead, before +1.9 from the 800 to 400 meaning a 10 length squeeze. -2.4 last 400 included just -1.9 last 200. That says more to come, and note last summer on firm tracks he repeatedly closed with +4.0 to +8.9 sprints. Firmer, fitter and longer looks ideal! Has a handicap rating of just BM70 so this track/distance in 3 weeks looks ideal?

    Subsequently: Unplaced Caulfield 15/08 then winner Sandown 02/09

    Althoff
    Rosehill
    Aug 1, 2026

    The 1.2 length 2nd in Race 9

    -2.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 19th on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced 5yo with a big return that says there's more wins to come, noting he's effectively only had one full prep as a gelding. Here settled 6 lengths from the lead going -6.1 lengths below benchmark at the 800, before -5.1 in the mid race so "barely moving". However the close was outstanding. +3.7 lengths above benchmark last 400, with +2.6 lengths last 200 in isolation. The daily rankings had him the 7th best last 600, the 2nd best last 200 and the best last 200 of the day. He's got a PB of benchmark set at Randwick 24/01 when 4th up. Can be followed with confidence this campaign. 

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 15/08 Winner Rosehill 29/08

    Kingswood
    Flemington
    Nov 4, 2025

    The 0.4 length winner of Race 6

    +0.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Import who nearly matched his local bests of +0.7 (Rosehill November 2024) and +0.6 (here first up 13/09), but this was on a much softer surface producing a solid wet track indicator of +6.4. Sat 3rd line going -8.4 at the 800, before +0.6 mid race and +1.5 last 400. The micro-splits showed he peaked at the 400 despite winning, with a slow taper from there. What he showed in his two wins last spring was an elite sprint off soft tempos closing with +8.9 at Sandown and +9.1 at Caulfield. Entered for WA which is often/high tempo/firm summer tracks, but he's shown tactical versality. Maybe the Ballarat Cup is ideal?

    Subsequently: 4th Ballarat Cup then winner NZ Group 1 Boxing Day

    REPOST AFTER FIRST UP CAULFIELD HEATHERLY WIN 29/08

    Saint George
    Flemington
    Jun 20, 2026

    The 2.9 length 4th in Race 8

    -3.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 8th on the day

    Summary

    A hidden run, but first up off 126 days away with market softness strongly suggests a big elevation from here. Settled 7.4 lengths from the lead going -6.0 at the 800, before -0.7 from the 800 to 400 meaning a +5.3 length squeeze. Peaked on his run there closing with -4.9 and that's where big improvement can be expected. Last prep 2nd up here was narrowly beaten Cup Day with an excellent -0.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 6th on the day, and a similar elevation would see him deep in the finish in the Winter Final if heading there in a fortnight. Either way another successful prep can be expected. 

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 18/07. Winner Caulfield 29/08

    Guest House
    Cranbourne
    Dec 27, 2025

    The 0.8 length winner of Race 4

    -0.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Nice horse! Excellent debut with the immediate filter to say he's a serious player in 2yo features going forward given not only a top 10 performance, but in this case the 3rd best of a Saturday city card. Stalked the lead going -1.2 at the 800, before +2.9 in the mid race, and -0.1 last 400. Lost 0.4 of a length last 200 in isolation, and the best last 800 of the day, but just the 31st best last 200 strongly suggests there's more to come. We look forward to tracking his progress.

    Subsequently: 2nd Blue Diamond Prelude 07/02, then 3rd Blue Diamond 21/02 before winner Golden Slipper.

    REPOST AFTER FIRST UP ROSEHILL WIN 29/08

    Mr Miller
    Randwick
    Aug 14, 2026

    The 1.8 length 4th in trial 4

    -2.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 7th of the session

    Summary

    Lightly raced 4yo with the best in front of him, and this "dash home" trial in the strongest heat of the morning, says he's ready to go to the races and win first up. -12.4 at the 800 when 4.3 lengths from the lead. Closed with +0.3 and +3.8 with the last 200 a super slick +3.0 lengths above benchmark. His current PB is -0.1 when a luckless 2nd at Gosford on their standalone day, and this performance says he's set to sail past that figure this time in.

    Subsequently: Winner Warwick Farm 19/08 winner Randwick 29/08

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.