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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Flemington Derby Day
31st October
Now posted!

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Flying For Fun
    Warwick Farm
    Sep 3, 2026

    The 3.2 length 6th in trial 1

    -7.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 37th of the session

    Summary

    A hidden trial, but after smashing the line here in her first trial 18/08 with the 3rd best last 200 of the session, this 2nd one strongly suggests this high class sprinting mare will be a "player" in quality sprints this time in and should not be underestimated when she returns to the races. Asked to "do nothing" under a big hold from McDonald settling 4.3 lengths from the lead, but her 200 increments showed +1.1, +0.9, -0.8 and +3.1. That says a 1.7 length slow down from the 400 to 200, before an electric 3.9 length turn of foot late. She won first up last prep with +0.8, and has a fully franked +7 range last 400 close. Stand by!

    Subsequently: 2nd up Caulfield Group 2 placing before winner Flemington 31/10

    Flying For Fun
    Caulfield
    Oct 10, 2026

    The 1.2 length 2nd in Race 6

    +0.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 23rd on the day

    Summary

    Ready! Big closing mare who's reeled off the "picket fence" of the best last 800, 600, 400 and 200 of the day chasing the old warrior JIGSAW hard, and matched her best of last prep in doing so overall. -0.7 lengths below benchmark at the 800 when 2.7 lengths from the leader/winner, before +2.7 in the mid race and +4.2 last 400. Ran 2nd Derby Day last year over 1100 when +0.1 in her first Melbourne run which included a blistering +7.5 last 400. Her asset is straight line speed and retuning to that race looks ideal, and she should be very hard to stop from going one better this year. 

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 31/10

    Lady Shenandoah
    Caulfield
    Oct 10, 2026

    The 0.2 length winner of Race 9

    +4.6 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    An outstanding win to go with a freak ride, pushing her PB from +4.1 set Rosehill March 2025 over 1500, yet there's a strong case to be made that it could have been better due to a slowdown in traffic. +8.9 at the 800 was the fastest she's ever gone in the first section, yet she was 5 lengths from the lead. Closed with +3.5 and -0.4, but the micro-split showed a 1.3 length slowdown from the 400 to 200, before a half length rebound over the last 200 when clear. The Empire Rose and/or Champions Mile Melbourne Cup week look logical next steps. 

    Subsequently: Winner Empire Rose 31/10

    Skyhook
    Rosehill
    Sep 26, 2026

    The 2.9 length winner of Race 9

    +2.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Just crushing his rivals backing up his +2.0 best of the day a fortnight back over 1300, to extending his PB further leading throughout. -0.3, +0.1 and +3.0 was the perfect display of efficiency from both horse and rider. At time of writing will return to 1300 in 3 weeks time in the Silver Eagle and if he maintains this level will probably win again.

    Subsequently: 2nd Randwick Silver Eagle 17/10 then winner Randwick Golden Eagle 31/10

    Stormy Marco
    Rosehill
    Oct 10, 2026

    The 0.5 length 5th in Race 4

    -2.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 47th on the day

    Summary

    Is this the Spring Champion "Grand Final" runner? 3rd at Group 1 mile level to TRON BOLT in his first prep Eagle Farm 13/06, and resumed with a sound 2nd 12/09 producing -2.6 lengths below benchmark. There he suffered a big 7.4 length slowdown. Then had two contrasting race shapes. Run off his feet in the brutal Golden Rose where going +6.6 lengths above benchmark at the 800 - the clear fastest of his career - still had him 7 lengths from the lead. Here -13.9 was 20.5 lengths slower first section! +1.7 and +6.2 last two sections with an excellent Ground Made up 7.7 length figure. Now has the grounding to peak at 2000.

    Subsequently: 4th Spring Champion 24/10 then winner VRC Derby 31/10

    Stormy Marco
    Randwick
    Oct 24, 2026

    The 2.9 length 4th in Race 7

    -4.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 52nd on the day

    Summary

    A modest IVR figure to include, but it's right in the current range of the Melbourne 3yo Derby form as he heads south, and his 3 previous runs were all in the -2.6 to -2.0 range which puts him above them were he to take that level south. Race to race despite settling at the rear of the field he had to go 12 lengths faster first section from a fortnight earlier at Rosehill. -1.7 lengths below benchmark at the 800, before +0.2 in the mid race and -0.8 last 400. Despite the significantly increased exertion, his ground made up figure was still a strong 3.6 lengths after 7.7 lengths in the Gloaming. Looks a key player next Saturday.

    Subsequently: Winner VRC Derby Flemington 31/10

    Pericles
    Caulfield
    Feb 21, 2026

    The 0.8 length winner of Race 7

    +1.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    First up 2nd prep Bjorn Baker and with another dynamic win to kick off after +1.4 at Randwick last September. here -0.9 stalking the leaders, before +2.4 in the mid race and +1.9 last 400. Did drop away a length over the last 200 which strongly suggests he can continue his pattern from last time in when 3rd to rising superstar AUTUMN GLOW in the Epsom with +3.4. He was 4 weeks between runs there and at time of posting is returning to Sydney to presumably be kept fresh again. He's going as well as he has at any stage of his career and deserves continued respect in elite races going forward.

    REPOST AFTER $3 MILLION RUSSELL BALDING WIN RANDWICK 31/10

    The Next Episode
    Flemington
    Oct 3, 2026

    The nose winner of Race 6

    Benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Ended his 2yo season as a very promising colt with two wins at -0.9 and -2.0 level, but with blistering ground made up figures of +7.0 and +5.1, and has returned at a serious level that says he's a group 1 winner in time with ordinary luck. His 3 sections were -5.5 (when 4 lengths from the lead) before -3.9 and +0.4 including last bit best bit +1.1 last 200 in isolation. The "picket fence" of the best last 800, 600, 400 and 200 of the day said he turned up fit, and the Coolmore looks an obvious next step where he should take a power of beating. (The current unknown is his speed if on firm ground.)

    Subsequently: Winner Coolmore 31/10

    Chix
    Randwick
    Sep 11, 2026

    The 1.6 length winner of trial 6

    -4.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 8th on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced mare eligible for a very basic benchmark race on resuming and is ready to return to the races a winner if her two trials are taken at face value, with her 2nd a fortnight earlier the 3rd best of the session with -2.0. Here top 8 and very solid when asked. -10.2 at the 800 was a soft tempo, before +0.4 in the mid race and -2.4 last 400. That means a solid 10.6 length mid race squeeze, and she gassed out 0.8 of a length last 200. Her PB to date is -2.5 when 5th best of the day at Kembla in February, and her Illawarra win 05/05 while only -4.0 was 3rd best of the day. More to come this time in as clearly stronger.

    Subsequently: Winner Kenso 07/10 at $11 then winner Randwick 31/10

    Regal Ambition
    Caulfield
    Sep 27, 2026

    The one length winner of Race 2

    -1.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 29th on the day

    Summary

    Three starts and yet to see a race of pressure, but this performance sets her up as a genuine live chance in the Thousand Guineas, with blistering closing speed and excellent Ground Made Up figures. -8.9 at the 800 at the rear of the field 6.3 lengths from the lead, before +2.7 from the 800 to 400 meaning an 11.6 length mid race squeeze. That she sustained it with +4.7 last 400 is an excellent sign stepping from a "barrier trial" tempo 1200 first up at 1200 to 1440 here. 4th best last 600 of the meeting, after the best last 400 and 200 on debut, and 3rd best last 600 and 200 resuming 09/09. More to come!

    Subsequently: 3rd Thousand Guineas before winner Derby Day Flemington 31/10

    Anthracite
    Rosehill
    Oct 10, 2026

    The nose winner of Race 3

    +0.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    This horse has turned into a mini-PRIDE OF JENNI! We sizzled him two starts back when +2.0 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day over 1800, and here he's just hung on out to 2000, but after a blistering first split of +10.2 lengths above benchmark. Understandably tapered from there with -0.7 and -6.7 last two sections, and is near certain to "feel" this run. However with ideally 3-5 weeks between runs, this level can see him remain very hard to get past as he makes the chasers feel pain! There's a similar class 1850 at the Newcastle standalone day 14/11 which looks ideal.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 24/10

    Priory Park
    Warwick Farm
    Oct 13, 2026

    The 0.9 length 3rd in trial 6

    -0.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 4th of the session

    Summary

    Excellent trial with just one prep to date and is now gelded. -9.1 at the 800, before +3.8 and +2.5 last two sections peaking on his run late losing 0.6 of a length over the last 200. This was also seen via the 2nd best last 800, the 3rd best last 600 and 400, but the 12th best last 200 of the day. Won at Muswellbrook with -3.9 ranked 3rd of the 1st of May meeting, before starting favourite and failing Gosford. Should return at a brand new level.

    Subsequently: Winner Kembla 24/10

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.