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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
CAULFIELD CUP AVAILABLE SATURDAY MORNING
17th October
NOW POSTED

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Kingswood
    Caulfield
    Aug 29, 2026

    The 0.7 length winner of Race 9

    +1.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Outstanding return after a 175 days away with a 2nd best of the day performance despite the Memsie at Group 1 level being the previous race. What assisted - and he had the talent to cope - was a high pressure race "nowhere to hide" race shape. At the 800 he was going +2.3 lengths above benchmark despite being 4.6 lengths from the lead, before -0.9 in the mid race, and a "nothing left" -7.0 last 400. He has tactical versatility being able to produce very strong mid race moves off softer tempos. This is a new IVR PB and clearly turned up very fit. From here? Maybe the Underwood? In this form he's a genuine top 3 chance.

    Subsequently: 4th Underwood 19/09, then 4th Might and Power 10/10 before winner Caulfield Cup

    Autumn Glow
    Randwick
    Sep 19, 2026

    The 1.3 length winner of Race 8

    +4.6 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    The champion mare slightly extended from her first up +4.3 over 1400 when comfortably beating SHEZA ALIBI, with the difference in race shape here being the softer mid race, and significantly faster close. Led going -2.4 at the 800, before +1.9 in the mid race meaning a 4.2 length mid race squeeze compared to 11.2 when resuming. Closed when challenged with +6.0 last 400 and that compared to +1.2 previous start. Her 200 increments late were +1.4, +3.0 and +3.0 showing the perfect J Mac efficiency. Yet to see a race of pressure this time in, but her Golden Eagle win showed it's no issue this distance range.

    Subsequently: Winner King Charles 17/10

    Cross Tasman
    Rosehill
    Sep 26, 2026

    The 0.3 length 2nd in Race 5

    +0.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 8th on the day

    Summary

    High quality 2nd to fellow "horse on the rise" DECORUM with a performance stronger than the BM88 level that it was. +1.5 at the 800 was good speed despite being 4.3 lengths from the lead, before -3.8 from the 800 to 400 meaning a 5.3 length slowdown. Rebounded hard late with +5.1 last 400 which was the 6th best of the day at the end of 1400 metres. Has a PB of +1.8, and showed in his mid-January win he thrives on wet ground if required. Benchmark 88 on Everest day Randwick next?

    Subsequently: Winner Benchmark 88 Everest Day 

    Apocalyptic
    Randwick
    Aug 22, 2026

    The 0.8 length 3rd in Race 6

    -0.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 15th

    Summary

    Subsequently: First up after 175 days away and two "OK" runs last prep post winning the Group 1 Flight and what a return! -7.7 at the 800 had her 5.2 lengths from the lead and greatly disadvantaged under the race shape. +2.9 in the mid race was an outstanding 10.6 length squeeze for a sprint race, and sustained it home with +3.0 last 400. This included a 1.4 length slowdown from the 400 to 200, before a sharp 1.7 rebound last 200 in isolation. The franking was the best last 800 and 600 of the day and the 3rd best last 400. A slightly further sprint looks ideal from here. Theo Marks Rosehill or Bobby Lewis down south?

    Subsequently: Unplaced Rosehill 12/09 then winner Silver Eagle at $26 Randwick 10/10

    Tempted
    Randwick
    Oct 3, 2026

    The 3 length winner of Race 9

    +5.2 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Australia's best sprinter on point to run to a brand new level chasing KA YING RISING in the Everest off this phenomenal win, which is a new PB from +4.8 four weeks earlier. Relaxed early going just -5.4 lengths below benchmark, and was 5.6 lengths from the lead there. It needs to be underlined that's usually a non-winning position in a 1200 race. Picked up from there closing with -1.3 in the mid race and a booming +5.3 last 400. The daily rankings were the 2nd best last 800, and the best last 600, 400 and 200 of the day. A huge +7 is on the cards, but even that probably won't be enough v the Hong Kong champ!

    Subsequently: Winner the Everest! 

    Grafterburners
    Randwick
    Oct 3, 2026

    The 3.1 length 4th in Race 9

    +1.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Star QLD sprinter who is on point to climb past his current PB which is a blistering +3.1 set at the Gold Coast, and just past his +2.7 when 3rd to TEMPTED in the Percy Sykes Randwick April. Well beaten again her to the champion mare, but -3.7, -1.5 and +0.3 which built from the 14th best last 800 and 600 of the day, to a booming 3rd best last 200, is the perfect "bridging" set up to the Sydney Stakes next after an in traffic benchmark unplaced run a fortnight earlier. A firmer track if he found it would be ideal too compared to this soft deck.

    Subsequently: Winner Sydney Stakes Randwick 10/10

    Saintly Dancer
    Flemington
    Oct 3, 2026

    The 6 length winner of Race 4

    -0.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 10th on the day

    Summary

    5th start first prep but obliterated her rivals with a clear new PB from -2.5 on two occasions. Led throughout going -3.9, -6.6 and -6.9 on clearly a very heavy surface, with a wet track indictor of +10.6 being in the "swimmer" category. An obvious key chance into the Thousand Guineas and if she happed to find another day where rain had hit hard you wouldn't want to be against her!

    Subsequently: Winner Thousand Guineas Caulfield 10/10

    Chains Of Love
    Scone
    Oct 7, 2026

    The 1.1 length winner of trial 10

    -8.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 13 on the day

    Summary

    Ready! Clearly aimed at the Kosciusko first up and is set to come to play big time. Just -10.7 and -10.8 first two sections, but then "exploded" late with +5.7 last 400, with the last 200 in isolation +3.8. Context is added via the 5th best last 600, the best last 400 and the 3rd best last 200 of the session. Wow first up last prep at the (target home) Scone carnival with +1.1 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day. Won on wet ground at Randwick in June and placed July Flemington also on the heavy. As such passes both the class and affected ground criteria to run boldly.

    Subsequently: Winner Kosciusko Randwick 10/10

    Hazardous
    Wangaratta
    Oct 7, 2026

    The 6 length winner of trial 11

    -5.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 2nd of the morning

    Summary

    Unraced runner and is set to win on debut if she gets it right having been slowly away in two jump outs prior to this when showing talent in both. 2nd best of a 13 trial session, and did it effortlessly. -5.9 at the 800, before -10.9 in the slowest part of the track from the 800 to 400. Closed with -0.7 including last bit best bit +1.1 last 200 in isolation. Despite being under a big hold with a significant margin, still put down the 5th best last 400 and 4th best last 200 of the morning.

    Subsequently: Winner Wodonga 10/10

    Sweethearted
    Geelong
    Jan 3, 2026

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 7

    -0.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 8th on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him last start from Pakenham when -1.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 22nd of Cup Day, but closing with the 2nd best last 800, and the 3rd best last 400 and 200 of the day with the 1000 being too short for him. Here out to 1100 has matched his PB from first up Caulfield also 1100, and the data strongly suggests 1200 would now be better for him. -1.4 at the 800 when 3rd line, before +1.3 in the mid race and +2.1 last 400. Peaked on his run at the 200 losing 2 lengths late. This was also seen via the 2nd best last 800, but just the 13th best last 200 of the day. Can break through benchmark from here now.

    REPOST AFTER CAULFIELD 1100 WIN 14/10

    Buccleuch
    Sandown Hillside
    Aug 22, 2026

    The 4.5 length winner of Race 2

    -1.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 7th on the day

    Summary

    Big return! Resumed with good market support despite 196 days away, and then aided by the last scratching of hot favourite CRUISERWEIGHT, but it's hard to think he wouldn't have beaten him too with this effortless win. -4.6 at the 800 stalking the leaders before -5.3 in the mid race. Last 400 was benchmark, but note losing 1.6 lengths over the last 200 in isolation via whatever combination of having the race won and conditioning. He was a very promising late 2yo winning 3 in a row including 2 at Flemington with booming ground made up figures, but didn't come up in two summer runs. He's got more wins in store.

    Subsequently: Winner Sandown 09/09. Unplaced Caulfield 27/09 then winner Caulfield 14/10

    Porter
    Caulfield
    Aug 29, 2026

    The nose 2nd in Race 4

    -0.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 15th on the day

    Summary

    Tough front-runner who just missed against rock hard fit veteran HOME RULE, and the data says he'll take great benefit from the run fitness wise. -4.0 at the 800 sitting 2 lengths from the lead, before +1.5 in the mid race meaning a 5.5 length mid-race squeeze. That saw him out closing with -5.2 last 400, but lost 2 lengths in isolation over the last 200. He's clearly a firmer the better type, and has a history of improving with racing and holding his form. Last prep he won at Flemington with an excellent +1.3 lengths above benchmark at his 8th run for the prep. Back here in similar BM84 on the 19th September looks ideal.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Caulfield 19/09 then winner Caulfield 14/10

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.