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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Flemington
MARCH 7
NOW POSTED

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Sheza Alibi
    Caulfield
    Feb 21, 2026

    The 2.3 length winner of Race 5

    +0.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 8th on the day

    Summary

    Evolving filly from QLD starting her 2nd prep with Moody Coleman and has produced a PB from -0.1 at her last run before the break Derby Day Flemington, and did so first up *screaming* there's more to come. -0.1 sitting 3rd line at the 800, before +1.4 in the mid race and +1.4 last 400. However as was visually obviously she was only clear 200 out, and there after a 2.8 length slowdown from the 600 to 200, produced a quality 2.3 length last 200 turn of foot. Her last 400 is fully franked with 4 performances from +4.0 to +9.7, and as such should keep elevating. We look forward to tracking her progress. 

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick Guineas 07/03

    Caballus
    Flemington
    Nov 1, 2025

    The one length winner of Race 3

    -0.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 13th on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him from his lead in +0.8 first up 5th Randwick closing with a booming +9.9 combined last two sections that included the best last 800, 600 and 400 of Everest day, and here has won with a bludge! Very soft tempo race shape where he was on pace with -3.1 and -2.9 first two sections - significantly slower than the Coolmore race 6 - but then "let rip" with +7.6 last 400, which included +5.0 last 200 in isolation. This was only his 3rd run as a gelding, and his elite closing speed says there's more wins in store. Faces a big challenge this Saturday at Group 1 level, but racing well enough to place will be no surprise. 

    Subsequently: Unplaced Flemington 08/01 Group 1 heavy track then 3 length winner Doomben 06/12

    REPOST: Winner Newmarket next Flemington 1200 start 07/03

    Joliestar
    Randwick
    Feb 14, 2026

    The 1.2 length winner of Race 7

    +3.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Outstanding return from the triple Group 1 winner to a level that says she's could still have her best in front of her! -3.7 lengths below benchmark at the 800 was in her "comfort zone" of relaxing early, before +0.5 in the mid race and +5.5 last 400. Her close included the 2nd best last 800, and the 3rd best last 600 and 400 of the day. Did produce +4.5 (PB) first up last prep but A/ it was over 1100 and B/ clearly fully wound up to get an Everest slot. This conversely sets her up as a "platform" run, and as such her best ever performance this time in would be no surprise. Canterbury Stakes from here?

    Subsequently: Winner Canterbury Stakes Randwick 07/03

    Ahha Ahha
    Geelong
    Jan 3, 2026

    The nose 2nd in Race 5

    -0.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    On the quick back up from Cranbourne when too far out of her ground early, and here "banged" forward going +0.6 lengths above benchmark at the 800 which was 6 lengths faster race to race but 3.7 lengths from the lead. -0.2 in the mid race, before +2.7 last 400 in just missing. Her PB was 12/12 when +0.4 lengths above benchmark and best of the night Cranbourne. Can run to that from here and there's no reason she doesn't go one better after just missing in similar class to this BM74.

    Subsequently: 2nd Caulfield 07/02 before 2nd Flemington 28/02 then winner Flemington 07/03

    Generosity
    Randwick
    Sep 20, 2025

    The 2.2 length 3rd in Race 9

    +2.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Stand by! 2nd up 2nd start Chris Waller ex-WA and already a mare of genuine talent, but after a first up "RDO" in severe traffic, has produced a run that says she'll be winning good races on this side of the country too. -3.8 at the 800, before +3.6 mid race and +4.4 last 400. Her historical profile includes a PB of +2.7 and four performances where her closing spring was between +7.2 and +9.5 lengths above benchmark, and 6 times she recorded the best last 400 sprint of the meeting. 1200 up to 1400 looks ideal. 

    Subsequently: Unplaced 18/10 and spelled. First up Randwick winner 07/03

    Tom Kitten
    Caulfield
    Feb 7, 2026

    The 0.2 length winner of Race 7

    +2.7 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Outstanding win matching his nose 2nd in last year's Futurity when also first up this track/distance with a performance that says as an autumn 5yo he may be at his best ever level this time in! -2.2 at the 800 had him 5.2 lengths from the lead. +3.2 in the mid race meant a very strong 5.4 length squeeze, before last bit best bit +6.0 last 400 which included +4.3 last 200 in isolation. The eye matched the visual with the best last 200 of the meeting at the end of 1400 metres on a day when there were four 1100 sprints. Won last year's All Star Mile with +3.0 and later produced +3.9 when 3rd to VIA SISTINA in the Queen Elizabeth.

    Subsequently: Winner All Star Mile 07/03

    Pinito
    Rosehill
    Feb 21, 2026

    The 2.9 length 4th in Race 9

    -2.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 33rd on the day

    Summary

    Excellent return after 259 days away by this lightly raced staying mare who ended her last prep when beaten a nose in the QLD Oaks and producing a PB IVR wise with -0.5. Just -8.0 at the 800 when 8 lengths from the lead. -1.4 in the mid race meant a solid 6.6 length squeeze, before a booming +7.8 last 400 which was the best of the whole meeting. Resumed at Canterbury last time in with -5.1 so her profile suggests a 2.7 length improvement this time in. Note wet would be no issue for her given her Gold Coast Listed 1800 win on bog heavy ground last May. 

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 07/03

    Beadman
    Rosehill
    Oct 11, 2025

    The 0.3 length 2nd in Race 4

    +0.6 lengths above benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent run aside from the very unlucky nature of it, as this was a new PB from -1.7 when bolting in at the Gold Coast on wet ground 10/05 at his 3rd career run. Importantly it was a 1.4 length elevation from his first up 3rd also here over 1100 a fortnight earlier, saying he's progressed and on point for the Coolmore Grand Final. -0.9 at the 800 stalking the leaders, before +1.3 in the mid race and closing with +4.6 last 400. However was only clear 200 out, and that was the 4th best of the day +3.6. He gave a hint into his straight line speed with a booming +7.5 last 800 close at Kembla, and that's an important asset at Flemington.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Coolmore and spelled. First up winner Randwick 07/03

    Scheelite
    Flemington
    Feb 14, 2026

    The 0.9 length 5th in Race 7

    +0.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 12th on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced 5yo who was specked at odds for his return off a short 84 day spell and has "run out of his skin" matching his PB. The context is that other run was chasing PRIDE OF JENNI when rock hard fit 4th up and going +5.9 lengths above benchmark first section. Here cruised in front going +0.4 lengths above benchmark at the 800, before -1.5 in the mid race - negative of a 2 length slowdown - before +3.1 last 400. Ideally peeling away from this super strong opposition from here back to an open handicap mile range?

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 07/03

    Legacy Bound
    Flemington
    Nov 1, 2025

    The 3 length 3rd in Race 6

    +1.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced colt in his 2nd prep, and while he won his first three starts, this is a new PB and clearly so in a high pressure Group 1. +2.5 lengths above benchmark stalking the leaders was the fastest first split of his career, before +2.3 and +0.8 so even for the firm ground being well above benchmark each section added merit to the performance. Now listed as spelling, but he looks a weapon in 3yo stakes races next time in. He's improved nearly 4 lengths this prep from his first, so he's heading upwards.

    Subsequently: Spelled and first up winner Flemington 07/03

    Tentryis
    Flemington
    Nov 1, 2025

    The 2.3 length winner of Race 6

    +4.0 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Turned up set for the Coolmore Grand Final with +0.8 here when 3rd Turnbull Stakes day 04/10 and -0.1 Caulfield Cup day when exploding with the 5th best last 400 of the day, and has left with the tag of the most promising sprinter in Australia. Found a high pressure race shape where his benchmark speed at the 800 had him 3 lengths from the lead, before +2.8 in the mid race and +5.7 last 400. However note such was the heat up front, that he actually tapered late losing 1.4 lengths last 200 in isolation. This is also seen via the 3rd best last 800, but the 30th best last 200 of the day.

    Subsequently: First up winner Lightning Stakes 14/02.

    Observer
    Caulfield
    Oct 11, 2025

    The 2.5 length 3rd in Race 8

    -1.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 25th on the day

    Summary

    Beware the unlucky runner and this colt was certainly that, but he's virtually matched his best which was -1.0 length below benchmark twice at his first two starts, but did so "stuck" in a high pressure race shape going +8.5 lengths above benchmark at the 800 sitting 2nd line. That was the fastest he's gone to date in the first section by 5.4 lengths. +0.1 in the mid race before -9.6 last 400. Numbers aside he hit a severe "dead end" in the straight, so whatever he improves by from here, it should be significant. The Vase Moonee Valley over 2040 looks the natural progression from here.

    REPOST AFTER WINNING AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS 28/02

    Subsequently: Winner Vase Moonee Valley 25/10. Winner Derby 01/11

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.