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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Australian Guineas Day
February 28
NOW POSTED

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Bridal Waltz
    Flemington
    Jul 5, 2025

    The 0.8 length 2nd in Race 6

    +1.2 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Rock hard fit and no improvement to come, but this late season filly has virtually matched her all time best (+1.3) set at Mornington 2nd up when winning 19/04, so the reality is if she can hold this figure she can win again. -4.6 and -4.1 over the first two sections were very "cruizey" before a big +6.6 last 400 kick down. That was the 4th best last 400 of the day in staving off the red hot favourite SHE'S AN ARTIST. Clearly the stable backed off her in the 7 weeks between runs - 10/05 to 21/06 - given her late blow out a fortnight prior to this run, and she peaked at this black type target race.

    Subsequently: Winner Bletchingly Stakes 26/07 Caulfield. Twice stakes placed spring and spelled. First up Flemington winner 28/02

    Educated
    Cranbourne
    Jan 30, 2026

    The 3.3 length winner of Race 5

    +0.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the night

    Summary

    This is a very promising filly! 1st up 2nd start after an effortless Tatura 1100 maiden win last September when just -4.6 lengths below benchmark. Here off a very sharp jump out 19/01 just had a cruise but in fast sustained time. -0.2 at the 800, before -0.8 in the mid race losing a sharp 2.3 lengths from the 600 to 400 under a hold. Last 400 was +3.8 closing with the 6th best last 600, 400 and 200 of the night. We look forward to measuring her progress, but winning again off this very basic BM66 class looks a likely next step

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 28/02

    King of Roseau
    Gold Coast
    Jan 17, 2026

    The nose winner of Race 9

    +0.5 lengths above benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Peaked in his $2million target race 4th up with an excellent performance in a high pressure set up, and last prep he won at starts number 5, 6 and 7 with his last two IVR figures his career best going +1.1 at Rosehill and +1.3 at Flemington, so he has a history of finding form and holding form. +0.6 at the 800 was very good speed, but 6.3 lengths from the lead. +0.1 in the mid race and +3.3 last 400. This included last bit best bit +2.5 last 200 in isolation. Of softer tempos he has three last 400 splits between +4.1 and +6.9 showing his tactical versatility.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 28/02 at $9

    Ambassadorial
    Flemington
    Dec 31, 2025

    The 1.2 length 3rd in Race 2

    -0.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 7th on the day

    Summary

    Had good market support off a 69 day freshen, first run new stable, after originally starting his career with Waterhouse Bott and winning 3 races for them, and then having 8 runs for Alex Rae which included a nose 2nd at Moonee Valley April on very wet ground. What he showed was excellent speed first section going +7.0 lengths above benchmark at the 800 sitting 2nd line, before -1.2 in the mid race and -2.1 last 400 as the early exertion told. Should be at his absolute top now, and particularly if finding a "fence on" firm summer track, will take a power of catching in similar company from here.

    Subsequently: 2nd Flemington 17/01 then winner Caulfield 07/02 winner Flemington 28/02

    Autumn Glow
    Randwick
    Feb 14, 2026

    The 2.7 length winner of Race 8

    +3.5 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    The rising rock star of Australian racing made it 9 from 9 with this outstanding return, with a new first up PB from +3.1. Sat 2nd line off a soft tempo going -10.3 at the 800, before +3.6 from the 800 to 400 meaning a booming 14 length mid race squeeze. Sustained her close with +7.3 last 400 meaning a freakish 2nd best last 600, 400 and 200 of the day at the end of 1400 while winning easily! Last bit best bit +4.6 last 200 and that matches the best last 200 of her career. Her overall PB sits at +4.9 from the Epsom and that looks a conservative target this time in! We look forward to tracking her progress.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 28/02

    Birdman
    Flemington
    Feb 14, 2026

    The 0.9 length 4th in Race 7

    +1.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    What a return! Import effectively just starting his 3rd full prep with Chris Waller - after a Geelong Cup "cameo" spring 2024, and he's "screamed" the champion trainer has him right and ready to go to a new level. -3.5 at the 800 was very good speed for a 1400 given his staying profile, before -1.3 in the mid race and a booming +7.2 last 400. His all time Australian PB is +1.3 set winning over 2000 at Randwick 3rd up last September, and it would be no surprise if he sailed past that this time in. The Australian Cup looks a logical target from here before heading back to Sydney.

    Subsequently: Winner Blamey 28/02

    Tempted
    Randwick
    Feb 7, 2026

    The 1.3 length winner of Race 8

    +1.9 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    What a return! Her first up runs/wins have been -6.7 Warwick Farm December 2024 - including the best last 400 and 200 of the day - and +1.1 at Rosehill last September, so she's returned with a resuming PB saying "the trend is her friend" and a new level is in play this time in. -2.5 at the 800 stalking the lead, before +2.3 in the mid race and +4.2 last 400 with the *screaming* lead that she lost 1.2 lengths last 200 despite winning. This was also seen via the 8th best last 600, the 7th best last 400, but just the 26th best last 200 of the day. Her PB to date is +4.1 when 2nd in the Everest and that could be eclipsed from here.

    Subsequently: Winner Surround 28/02

    Observer
    Caulfield
    Feb 7, 2026

    The 1.3 length winner of Race 5

    +0.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    Super return from the Derby winner smashed his previous PB's of -1.0 which he set 3 times from 1200 to 2500, as well as a luckless -1.2 in the Caulfield Guineas last spring. Brought his speed first up going +6.1 lengths above benchmark at the 800, before +1.6 in the mid race, and an understandable late gas out with -3.5. Note however he did rebound 1.3 lengths last 200 in isolation under full pressure when asked. Clearly turned up fit with just 98 days between runs and two quiet trials leading in, and with the Australian Guineas the short term target in 3 weeks. He should take a power of beating there.

    Subsequently: Winner Australian Guineas 28/02

    Getta Good Feeling
    Flemington
    Nov 1, 2025

    The 1.2 length winner of Race 4

    -3.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 63rd on the day

    Summary

    Won with the ease the deep odds on market expectations had her, and the cruisey nature of this race meant she couldn't have had a softer lead in to the Oaks. Stalked the leader going -2.5 at the 800 and matched it in the mid race with -2.4. Let down with +1.8 last 400 with "last bit best bit" +1.4 last 200 in isolation. Importantly the context of her lead speed, was she came from two "no pace" races here 04/10 and in the Thousand Guineas Caulfield going -10.0 and -8.8 first sections. That she has shown on several occasions in her short career and ability to relax and quicken says she'll take a power of beating.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Oaks and spelled. First up winner Flemington 28/02

    Observer
    Caulfield
    Oct 11, 2025

    The 2.5 length 3rd in Race 8

    -1.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 25th on the day

    Summary

    Beware the unlucky runner and this colt was certainly that, but he's virtually matched his best which was -1.0 length below benchmark twice at his first two starts, but did so "stuck" in a high pressure race shape going +8.5 lengths above benchmark at the 800 sitting 2nd line. That was the fastest he's gone to date in the first section by 5.4 lengths. +0.1 in the mid race before -9.6 last 400. Numbers aside he hit a severe "dead end" in the straight, so whatever he improves by from here, it should be significant. The Vase Moonee Valley over 2040 looks the natural progression from here.

    Subsequently: Winner Vase Moonee Valley 25/10. Winner Derby 01/11

    Miss Icelandic
    Ballarat
    Dec 6, 2025

    The 1.5 length winner of Race 2

    -2.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    Ready! Came off a nothing run first up outclassed at $61 Listed level Caulfield, but 3 weeks later with a clear conditioning elevation has improved her IVR figure 2.4 lengths, beaten by the rock hard fit SWIFTIE HARRIET on wet ground and after having the negative of the inner barrier on the poor deteriorating track. -3.2 at the 800 was similar race to race early speed, but +2.7 in the mid race was where the sharp improvement came from. Last 400 was -4.0 with -3.0 of that just in the last 200. On firm ground she has closing speed between +5.5 and +7.6, and that says placed right she can win from here in similar. 

    Subsequently: 2nd Caulfield Heath 20/12 at $16. Twice unplaced Geelong and Hobart before winner Cranbourne 27/02

    Bev's Nine
    Rosehill
    Jan 17, 2026

    The 1.4 length winner of Race 9

    Benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Remains unbeaten making it four from four with this first up win, and has dragged his adjusted IVR best up from -2.4 in doing so. Stalked the lead going -3.6, before -6.5 in the mid race, but a big lift when asked out of the slowdown with -3.8 last 400. The last 200 was the 5th best of the day and that closing strength gets an extra tick given this was his first run out of the "1000 metre bubble" and he did so resuming. We look forward to seeing what he can do on clean ground as he works through the grades.

    Subsequently: Winner Canterbury 27/02

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.