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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
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MARCH 13
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Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Everain
    Caulfield
    Jan 24, 2026

    The one length winner of Race 4

    Benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    Started his 2nd full racing prep with another first up win after good market support, but this was easily his best IVR figure finding a high pressure firm track 1400 compared to soft tracks and tempos. +3.6 lengths above benchmark at the 800 was the fastest first section of his career by 3 lengths, yet he was 6 lengths from the lead! +1.5 in the mid race before -2.2 last 400. Lost 3 lengths over the last 200 in isolation which is understandable given the heat and the resuming run. That says more to come and given this is basic BM70 class it should equate to working through the grades this time in.

    Subsequently: 3rd Caulfield Heath 18/02 before winner Sandown 11/03

    Gangsta Granny
    Randwick
    Aug 23, 2025

    The 0.5 length 2nd in Race 7

    +1.4 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    What a return only lowering her colours to potential champion AUTUMN GLOW! Her previous run was 3.7 lengths from her Rosehill March on firm ground with -0.7 lengths below benchmark. Here -5.7 at the 800, before -3.8 mid race and -1.3 last 400. Context was the 2nd best last 800 of the day, but the 9th best last 200 as the sustained exertion on heavy ground told. Note however the "swimmer" wet track indicator of +12.3. She's previous had 3 last 400 splits of +5.5, +6.7 and +8.5 on clean ground, so she's clearly and emerging talent. Just ideally needs to peel away from the winner!

    Subsequently: 3rd Rosehill 13/09 then winner Rosehill 11/10

    REPOST: Next prep also first up winner Randwick 07/03

    Scheelite
    Flemington
    Feb 14, 2026

    The 0.9 length 5th in Race 7

    +0.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 12th on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced 5yo who was specked at odds for his return off a short 84 day spell and has "run out of his skin" matching his PB. The context is that other run was chasing PRIDE OF JENNI when rock hard fit 4th up and going +5.9 lengths above benchmark first section. Here cruised in front going +0.4 lengths above benchmark at the 800, before -1.5 in the mid race - negative of a 2 length slowdown - before +3.1 last 400. Ideally peeling away from this super strong opposition from here back to an open handicap mile range?

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 07/03.

    American Wolf
    Flemington
    Jan 10, 2026

    The 1.5 length 3rd in Race 2

    -7.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 57th on the day

    Summary

    "Specking" him despite the low IVR figure, as it was a muddling tempo wind impacted race, but the structure says the run had merit. -12.2 at the 800, before +3.8 in the mid race meant very slow early, before a booming 16 length squeeze. Last 400 was -4.6 into the headwind but he made up 3.6 lengths on the winner in a good chasing performance. Importantly this is further evidence he's right again after good lead in trials before a luckless first up -4.9 in traffic at Caulfield Heath. He won the St Leger here in April in his first full prep closing hard with +4.2 last 400 which was similar to his SA Derby close. Ready for further.

    Subsequently: Twice placed Flemington 17/01 and Cranbourne 13/02. Unplaced Sandown 25/02 before winner Adelaide Cup 09/03

    Celerity
    Flemington
    Dec 31, 2025

    The 3.8 length winner of Race 6

    +0.4 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    3rd up first prep Ciaron Maher and with the "gear change" of Jamie Melham first time after over-racing in both previous runs this prep, relaxed, went whoosh and bolted in! -0.1 at the 800, before +0.6 in the mid race and -0.6 last 400. Her closing rankings were the 3rd best last 800 and 4th best last 400 and 200 of the day showing she's now fully fit. Hard going mare with an explosive sprint - produced an +8.5 last 400 when winning at Hawkesbury in June - who may be best suited to fast sprints on turning tracks? Perhaps the BM74 over 1100 at Caulfield 24/01 from here?

    Subsequently: Twiced placed Flemington and Caulfield Heath then Listed winner a Morphettville 

    Gallant Son
    Caulfield
    Jan 31, 2026

    The 0.8 length winner of Race 8

    +0.5 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him first up despite just -4.9 lengths below benchmark at Flemington given he was first up after 259 days and into a brutal headwind throughout. Here he's produced a new PB overall and there's more to come all being well. +0.8 at the 800, before -1.4 in the mid race and -2.0 last 400 with all that drop off just over the last 200 in isolation. That strongly suggests he's still building his fitness. This is a new PB, but when 2nd at Morphettville Listed level in April - when 3rd up - he let down with a +4.3 last 400. That turn of foot is where further improvement can come from. 

    Subsequently: 3rd Oakleigh Plate and 2nd Newmarket!

    Green Fly
    Randwick
    Jan 24, 2026

    The 1.2 length 4th in Race 8

    -1.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 12th on the day

    Summary

    With the obvious caveat that he's a 7yo with a few issues and lover of wet tracks, but on clean ground he couldn't have returned any better. -6.1 at the 800 sitting midfield, before +2.7 in the mid race and +3.4 last 400 showing the sustained nature of the close. This was also seen via the 6th best last 800 and the best last 600 of the day. He produced +0.5 first up last prep but on his preferred slow going winning at Rosehill, and when right is very consistent in the benchmark range. If he stays healthy/sound he should be able to find a win very soon this time in. 

    Subsequently: Winner Eagle Farm 14/02. Winner National Sprint Canberra 07/03

    Hughes
    Caulfield
    Jan 24, 2026

    The 0.2 length 2nd in Race 9

    +1.6 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Super performance and despite four wins last prep a clear career PB from +1.0 Cranbourne last March. -1.7 at the 800, before +3.1 and +4.1 last 2 sections which is excellent sustain speed that included some minor traffic and +6.9 of that was just over the last 600 in isolation. Flemington on the bigger track Listed 1400 in a fortnight looks ideal from here? 

    Subsequently: Unplaced Caulfield 07/02 then winner Echuca Cup 08/03

    Sheza Alibi
    Caulfield
    Feb 21, 2026

    The 2.3 length winner of Race 5

    +0.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 8th on the day

    Summary

    Evolving filly from QLD starting her 2nd prep with Moody Coleman and has produced a PB from -0.1 at her last run before the break Derby Day Flemington, and did so first up *screaming* there's more to come. -0.1 sitting 3rd line at the 800, before +1.4 in the mid race and +1.4 last 400. However as was visually obviously she was only clear 200 out, and there after a 2.8 length slowdown from the 600 to 200, produced a quality 2.3 length last 200 turn of foot. Her last 400 is fully franked with 4 performances from +4.0 to +9.7, and as such should keep elevating. We look forward to tracking her progress. 

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick Guineas 07/03

    Caballus
    Flemington
    Nov 1, 2025

    The one length winner of Race 3

    -0.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 13th on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him from his lead in +0.8 first up 5th Randwick closing with a booming +9.9 combined last two sections that included the best last 800, 600 and 400 of Everest day, and here has won with a bludge! Very soft tempo race shape where he was on pace with -3.1 and -2.9 first two sections - significantly slower than the Coolmore race 6 - but then "let rip" with +7.6 last 400, which included +5.0 last 200 in isolation. This was only his 3rd run as a gelding, and his elite closing speed says there's more wins in store. Faces a big challenge this Saturday at Group 1 level, but racing well enough to place will be no surprise. 

    Subsequently: Unplaced Flemington 08/01 Group 1 heavy track then 3 length winner Doomben 06/12

    REPOST: Winner Newmarket next Flemington 1200 start 07/03

    Joliestar
    Randwick
    Feb 14, 2026

    The 1.2 length winner of Race 7

    +3.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Outstanding return from the triple Group 1 winner to a level that says she's could still have her best in front of her! -3.7 lengths below benchmark at the 800 was in her "comfort zone" of relaxing early, before +0.5 in the mid race and +5.5 last 400. Her close included the 2nd best last 800, and the 3rd best last 600 and 400 of the day. Did produce +4.5 (PB) first up last prep but A/ it was over 1100 and B/ clearly fully wound up to get an Everest slot. This conversely sets her up as a "platform" run, and as such her best ever performance this time in would be no surprise. Canterbury Stakes from here?

    Subsequently: Winner Canterbury Stakes Randwick 07/03

    Ahha Ahha
    Geelong
    Jan 3, 2026

    The nose 2nd in Race 5

    -0.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    On the quick back up from Cranbourne when too far out of her ground early, and here "banged" forward going +0.6 lengths above benchmark at the 800 which was 6 lengths faster race to race but 3.7 lengths from the lead. -0.2 in the mid race, before +2.7 last 400 in just missing. Her PB was 12/12 when +0.4 lengths above benchmark and best of the night Cranbourne. Can run to that from here and there's no reason she doesn't go one better after just missing in similar class to this BM74.

    Subsequently: 2nd Caulfield 07/02 before 2nd Flemington 28/02 then winner Flemington 07/03

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.