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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Flemington Anzac Day
APRIL 25
NOW POSTED

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Panova
    Rosehill
    Mar 14, 2026

    The 3.1 length 5th in Race 7

    -2.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 41st on the day

    Summary

    Another "building" run towards - seemingly - her Vinery Grand Final and she's on point. Just -10.8 lengths below benchmark at the 800 and effectively in a non-winning position 7.6 lengths from the lead, before a booming 13.5 length mid race with +2.8 from the 800 to 400. That was the 3rd biggest squeeze of the day. Importantly she sustained it home with +2.5 last 400. This included the 7th best last 600 of the day. Her PB to date is -0.3 when winning at Flemington Derby Day in a high and sustained pressure mile, and that looks a very conservative goal from here. 

    Subsequently: Unplaced Vinery 28/03 before winner Australasian Oaks 25/04

    Tycoon Star
    Flemington
    Mar 28, 2026

    The nose 2nd in Race 6

    -1.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 22nd on the day

    Summary

    Good return and aside from Damian Lane dropping his rein for a stride near the post, what's evident in the data is he's better drier, suffered a mid race slowdown and there's a fitness elevation to come. -1.9 at the 800, before just -6.6 from the 800 to 400. Picked up out of the slowest part of the track with -4.4 last 400, but did lose a sharp 3.2 lengths last 200. This was also seen via the 10th best last 600 of the day, the 13th best last 400, but just the 27th best last 200. Last prep his first up Caulfield run was 2nd with -2.4 lengths below benchmark before a big 2nd up PB of +1.0. Looks a weapon in SA stakes races for 3yos.

    Subsequently: Nose 2nd Morphettville 11/04 before winner Tobin Bronze 25/04 Morphettville 

    Panova
    Flemington
    Nov 1, 2025

    The 1.8 length winner of Race 1

    -0.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 17th on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced filly on the rise picking up another Carbine Club for the stable, and there looks to be significant upside. Produced just -3.9 in her lead in win Randwick 18/10, but when producing a solid 7.8 length mid race squeeze to run down the leaders. There was going -6.4 at the 800, while here +2.2 so 8.6 lengths faster race to race as a starting point. However was still 5.6 lengths off the lead in the high pressure race shape. +4.7 in the mid race meant "fast and faster" before -2.5 last 400. However did suffer a 2.6 length flat spot from the 400 to 200 but rebounded hard late with 2 length pick up last 200. More to come!

    REPOST AFTER AUSTRALASIAN OAKS WIN 25/04

    Cilacap
    Caulfield
    Apr 11, 2026

    The 1.4 length 3rd in Race 8

    -0.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Ready! Was promising as a 3yo filly when winning 4 of her first 6 starts peaking with -2.2 lengths below benchmark at Moonee Valley March 2025 when an easy winner over a mile on wet ground, but after missing 265 days and a one run "summer cameo", now has a foundation. Two Sydney runs with her most recent a PB of +0.3 lengths above benchmark which was 13th when 8th in a Group 1. Here +0.9 lengths above benchmark at the 800 sitting 2nd line, before -2.5 and -6.7 last two sections on a deteriorating track. Was also lane disadvantaged drawn barrier 1. Perhaps the Bendigo mile or an SA stakes tilt next?

    Subsequently: Winner 25/04 SA Queen of the South Group 2

    Enamorada
    Caulfield
    Mar 21, 2026

    The 2 length 2nd in Race 10

    -0.5 lengths lengths below benchmark ranked 13th on the day

    Summary

    As disadvantaged as any runner on this poorly presented track ending up super wide in no-man's-land, but come off a best of the day -1.1 lengths below benchmark win at Sandown when just 2nd up, this says she still managed to improve her IVR figure despite circumstances being dead against. -2.2 at the 800 was good speed but 5 lengths from the lead. +6.4 in the mid race was a very solid 8.6 length exertion, before +0.2 last 400. Would be no surprise if they aimed at the mile in a fortnight here and then chased black type in SA from here.

    Subsequently: 5 weeks between runs and winner Randwick 25/04

    The Western Front
    Caulfield
    Apr 4, 2026

    The 0.8 length winner of Race 4

    -1.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 36th on the day

    Summary

    Slow maturing 5yo who's won his first attempt at a distance race, and produced a PB in the process with the likelihood of more to come noting this is just BM78 company. What's noticeable in his profile is he's continuously been in slow tempo race shapes requiring significant mid-race squeezes well above 10 lengths above benchmark. Here -9.8 at the 800, before +5.7 from the 800 to 400 so a 15.5 length squeeze, and he's sustained it with +6.1 last 400. This included a 2.3 length slowdown from the 600 to 400 in traffic and a one length late taper last 200. As such should continue to improve and be better for the longer run.

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 25/04

    Getta Good Feeling
    Flemington
    Feb 28, 2026

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 9

    -1.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 28th on the day

    Summary

    First up after winning the Manifold and Wakeful here last spring over a mile and 2000 respectively, but has produced a new PB and a clear best first up run. -3.1 at the 800 had her 3 lengths from the lead, before +1.5 in the mid race and +1.7 last 400. In addition she hit a flat spot of 1.3 lengths between the 400 and 200. Would assume she'll step up in trip now "job done" winning this $1million restricted race, and build on her stakes winning profile.

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield 21/03.

    Man Of Worth
    Randwick
    Dec 26, 2025

    The 4.2 length winner of Race 1

    -5.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 45th on the day

    Summary

    A low IVR figure to include, but this is a lightly raced import winning a maiden with an excellent turn of foot, on the quick back up 3rd up after gassing out last bit at Canterbury when -2.0 lengths below benchmark. Here -10.5 at the 800 and -3.2 in the mid race, before +4.4 last 400 when clear at the top of the straight before bolting in. Should have no problem elevating to -1.0 range, so conservatively placed can win again, where we can track his progress further. 

    Subsequently: Winner Warwick Farm 07/01. Spelled first up winner 22/04 Canterbury 

    Recon
    Pakenham
    Dec 13, 2025

    The 1.3 length winner of Race 10

    +1.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Airborne for the new stable winning three from three, and a new level after producing +0.9 best of the day at the Mornington Sunday meeting 02/11. Stalked the speed going +1.3 at the 800 which was good pace off a standing start first 400, went +0.1 in the mid race, before +1.9 last 400 so good, sustained speed. This is BM84 level, so at this time of year any improvement - and the small slowdown here said it's most likely - can see him winning again without surprise. 

    Subsequently: Twice unplaced and spelled. Winner Mornington Hareeba 2nd up 18/04

    Jigsaw
    Caulfield
    Mar 21, 2026

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 8

    +2.5 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Remarkable tough as teak 7yo who didn't win from April 2023 to October 2025, but since then has won another 5 in a row including a NZ Group 1 "there and back" trip! Here on the 7 day back up from also this track/distance when +2.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day, he's slightly improved his IVR figure due to the mid part of the track - in the hot lanes on the day - being significantly faster week to week. The three sections were -1.1, +4.5 and +2.5, with the context being just the 24th best last 400 of the day showing how the win was set up with good early speed in the clear slowest part of the track.

    Subsequently: Winner Quokka 18/04

    Jigsaw
    Cranbourne
    Nov 22, 2025

    The 0.8 length winner of Race 9

    +1.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd best of the day

    Summary

    All honours! Amazing performance by this 7yo who won this track/distance 2nd up 10/10 with +1.5 lengths above benchmark at the Friday night meeting, and that was breaking a drought back to April 2023. His Cox Plate Day win was +0.1 when leading throughout on his terms, but here has rebounded to a new level not produced since January 2023! +1.5 at the 800, +0.8 in the mid race before a slight late taper of -0.9 last 400. Clearly back in the zone with his old tenacity. Perhaps the Xmas Handicap Sandown from here?

    Subsequently: Winner Group 1 Telegraph New Zealand! Winner Caulfield 14/03 Winner William Reid Caulfield 21/03. Winner Quokka 18/04!

    Beiwacht
    Rosehill
    Sep 27, 2025

    The 4.1 length winner of Race 8

    +4.4 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Wow! Exploded in this PB to not only a new PB from -0.5, but to a level that has him top of the tree with this 3yo crop, and a potential Everest contender should the stable go there. +4.2 at the 800, before +3.6 in the mid race which is blistering sustained speed. +1.7 last 400 was reflective of the perfect firm ground, but also underlined the performance as he stayed above benchmark in all three sections. He is now at the elite level wherever they go, and however long he keeps racing given his multi million dollar stallion potential. 

    REPOST AFTER ALL AGED GROUP 1 WIN RANDWICK 18/04

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.