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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Flemington
1st August
NOW POSTED WITH $10 VOUCHER BACK ON PURCHASE (into your account tomorrow)

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Carbonados
    Randwick
    Nov 4, 2025

    The 1.7 length winner of Race 3

    -3.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 31st on the day

    Summary

    Well backed for his return, and while it got "scary" in severe traffic up the straight until Nash Rawiller forced his way out, the data says the stable have effectively got a "fast barrier trial" race shape for his return, which is ideal to avoid any flatness from here. -10.9 at the 800 stalking a very soft tempo, before -3.6 and +4.0 last 400 sections. Only clear 180 metres out, so last bit best bit +3.7 last 200 in isolation running away. 3rd best last 600, best last 400 and 2nd best last 200 of the day. Is comfortably a benchmark to +1.1 range 1200-1400 type, and that's lead for summer racing.

    REPOST AFTER 2ND UP WINNER ROSEHILL 01/08

    Just Like Gaby
    Pakenham
    Dec 13, 2025

    The 2.1 length 7th in Race 4

    -2.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 39th on the day

    Summary

    A low IVR figure, but this could well be a case of "losing the battle to win the war" after they've changed tactics in going back, overdid it having her with too much to do too late, but crushed the line with the 2nd best last 600, 400 and 200 of the day. -5.0 at the 800 was 5 lengths from the lead after just 200 metres, before -0.5 in the mid race. Last 400 was +6.1, with the last 200 in isolation +4.1 showing the "passive" tactics were completely overdone. This was clearly the best last 400 and 200 close of her career, and relaxing like this says back to 1100 or 1200 looks ideal with a -0.2 PB to date a modest expectation. 

    Subsequently: Spelled. First up winner Flemington 01/08

    Touchdown
    Caulfield Heath
    Dec 20, 2025

    The 2.3 length winner in Race 1

    -2.0 lengths below benchmark ranked 7th on the day

    Summary

    3 starts on the quirky Heath track for three wins, going -1.5 and -3.0 in his other two, but here in the small field has won with a bludge. -2.6 at the 800 stalking the lead, before +2.7 lengths above benchmark in the mid race which was a solid 5.3 length squeeze. Closed with +0.3 losing a length last 200 with the race well won. This is just BM70 company as he works through the grades and clearly hasn't been fully tested here. No reason he can't win again placed conservatively up to 2000 metre range. 

    Subsequently: 4th Caulfield 24/01 and spelled. 2nd up winner Flemington 01/08

    Sass Appeal
    Flemington
    Mar 7, 2026

    The 2.8 length winner of Race 5

    +2.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    Wow! 3yo filly having her 5th run in her first prep, and after two "walk/dash home" race shapes (-2.6 and -2.1 IVR figures) also here at 1400, has obliterated her PB and announced herself as a genuine Group 1 contender in time. +0.5 lengths above benchmark at the 800, before +4.1 in the mid race and +2.0 last 400. Did lose a length over the last 200 with the race won after the big exertion from the 800 to 400 told. Whether she has another run or not is an unknown, but she's a genuinely exciting spring prospect from here.

    Spelled. First up winner Flemington 01/08

    So You Pence
    Randwick
    Nov 4, 2025

    The 2.5 length winner of Race 6

    -1.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 12th on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced 6yo mare with an unusual profile having missed 814 days post her 2nd start December 2022, but she's recovered very well from injury now with 7 returning runs over 2 preps. Bolted in at Goulburn and Wagga during the autumn with -0.5 and -0.2 respectively, and came off a PB in the Kosciusko when 5th with +0.3. Here 17 days later has won with ease after stalking a very soft lead speed. -5.8 at the 800, before +1.2 in the mid race and +0.1 last 400. On firmer ground/under riding she's produced last 400's between +6.2 and +6.7 on three occasions previously. There's more wins to come with ongoing soundness!

    Subsequently: Spelled. First up winner Randwick 25/07

    Cosmic Crusader
    Ascot
    Nov 22, 2025

    The 2.6 length winner of Race 6

    +1.4 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced 5yo who won his 3rd race for the 5 run prep in this his first for the new stable and remains on the rise. -1.3 at the 800 was a 6.4 length improvement of early speed from a week earlier, before -0.3 in the mid race and +5.7 last 400. 4th best last 800, 600 and 400 of the day, before the 15th best last 200 losing 0.6 of a length late with the race won. He's got tactical versatility, and looks set to run very well in the Northerly and/or Gold Rush from here.

    Subsequently: Winner Northerly 06/12

    REPOST AFTER FIRST UP BLETCHINGLY WINNER CAULFIELD 25/07

    Cosmic Crusader
    Ascot
    Dec 6, 2025

    The 0.2 length winner of Race 9

    +2.6 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Created a boom in bolting in Belmont 20/09 with a best of the day performance of -0.9, which he matched off a 6 week freshen here 01/11 over 1400 metres. Since then he's climbed going +1.1, +1.3 and a booming +2.6 in winning his Group 1. Perfect Johnston-Porter ride going +8.2 lengths above benchmark in the "sweet spot" 4.2 lengths from the flying leader. -0.4 in the mid race as the field slowed, before finding under full pressure with +3.1 last 400. He's now at the top of the tree in WA racing on current profiles, but his challenge this Saturday is to immediately find speed in his legs back to 1400 in the Gold Rush.

    Subsequently: 2nd Gold Rush 13/12. Spelled stable and state switch. First up Caulfield Bletchingly winner 25/07

    Kaleo
    Flemington
    Jun 6, 2026

    Dead Heat Race 3

    -2.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 10th on the day

    Summary

    Has returned airborne now gelded, going from a luckless/poorly ridden 2nd at Geelong with just -9.4 lengths below IVR benchmark overall, but with a booming +5.1 last 400, to -3.9 at Sandown when 2nd to all the way winning stablemate on a "gluey" leaders track, to -2.5 here. Just -11.7 at the 800, before -3.8 in the mid race and -5.1 last 400 which included a 2.4 length dip from the 400 to 200. He's again produced a solid wet track indicator (+5.4) and he's set to remain a key player through the winter in similar 3yo company. Stepping to 2000 looks no issue if asked. 

    Subsequently: Twice unplaced then winner Flemington 18/07 at $12

    Saint George
    Flemington
    Jan 17, 2026

    The 0.4 length winner of Race 8

    -0.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    Five runs this time in, four of them very good with the only miss on the poor Ballarat Cup day track, and there still looks to be more to come, as he's get to run beyond 2000 range this time in. -1.7 at the 800 stalking the lead, before +3.2 and +2.3 last two sections which included a 1.4 length slowdown from the 400 to 200. Has a "better further" overseas profile, and now with an excellent grounding after missing 341 days, looks ready to take beating in summer stakes staying races. 

    Subsequently: Unplaced Flemington 14/02 and spelled. 2nd up winner Flemington 18/07

    Midnight Dynamite
    Randwick
    Jun 20, 2026

    The 1.6 length winner of Race 9

    +0.3 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    We sizzled this tactically versatile 4yo with a terrific strike rate after his Doomben win 16/05 before his last start 2nd here over 1300 when planted wide throughout. Here with a well judged Collett ride settled 6 lengths from the lead at the 800 going -10.1, before +1.2 and +1.3 last two sections winning running away. His mid race squeeze of 11.2 was the best of his career, and his overall IVR figure just below his +0.6 PB from here November. The Winter Stakes and/or Winter Challenge at Rosehill look ideal, or perhaps a return north for the Sunshine Coast Glasshouse?

    Subsequently: 3rd Winter Stakes Rosehill 04/07 then winner Winter Challenge Rosehill 18/07

    Changing Colours
    Rosehill
    Dec 7, 2025

    The 0.9 length 2nd in Race 7

    -0.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 15th on the day

    Summary

    Slow maturing 5yo mare 1st up having just her 12th career start, and this was her best resuming run to date. (From -2.0 previously at her 2nd career start October 2024.) -6.2 at the 800 had her 6 lengths from the lead, before -0.1 and +4.1 last two sections. This matched her 2nd best ever performance when winning here over 1400 in June, and just below -0.6 all time PB. Looks set to sail past that from here, and given this is just BM78 class, similar and up to 1400 from here looks ideal.

    Subsequently: Unplaced 03/01 before 2nd Rosehill 17/01, and unplaced again. Spelled and switched stables. 2nd up Flemington winner 18/07.

    Bold Soul
    Flemington
    Jun 20, 2026

    The 1.7 length 3rd in race 3

    -5.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 36th on the day

    Summary

    Despite the low IVR figure the context is he's clearly set for the final in a fortnight, and was put into the race early unlike his previous two starts. -12.1 lengths below benchmark at the 800 was 3rd line, but 18 lengths faster first section race to race. -1.4 from the 800 to 400 meant a 10.7 length mid race squeeze and a combined 20.4 lengths more speed race to race first two sections while stepping from 2000 to 2520 metres. Last 400 was the telling part of just -8.4, in contrast to his usual "last bit best bit" profile. He's best on "just" soft to good surfaces, so improved ground in 14 days would be ideal for him to bring his A-game.

    Subsequently: 2nd Flemington 04/07 then winner Flemington 18/07

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.