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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Flemington Makybe Diva day
12TH SEPTEMBER
NOW POSTED

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Paradoxium
    Randwick
    Mar 7, 2026

    The 1.4 length winner of Race 4

    -1.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 41st on the day

    Summary

    Created a boom when best of the day Wyong 10/12. His IVR figure was just -2.3 lengths below benchmark, but bolting in after showing blistering early speed with +2.0 and +0.8 first two sections. Had a setback that caused him to miss the Magic Millions, but here he couldn't have had more of a cruise race shape wise, to avoid flatness. -4.1 and -4.3 lengths below benchmark first two sections despite leading, but "ripped home" with +2.1 last 400. Importantly he had a super sharp trial 23/02 Rosehill of -0.4 lengths below benchmark which was the best of the morning. Set to run to his best in the Golden Slipper with luck in running.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Golden Slipper And Sires Produce and spelled. First up winner Flemington 12/09

    Losesomewinmore
    Flemington
    May 16, 2026

    The 2 length winner of Race 8

    +0.6 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Despite a big market drift, elevated big time from -4.8 lengths below benchmark in SA to produce his 5th Flemington straight track win and his best ever IVR figure. -6.1 at the 800 when 3.8 lengths from the lead, before +3.6 from the 800 to 400. That's an outstanding 9.7 length squeeze in a sprint, and continued it home with +3.6 last 400. However he actually lost 3.2 lengths over the last 200 - also seen via the best last 800, 600 and 400 of the day, but just the 25th best last 200 - which strongly suggests he'll improve further. Winter final back here on the 4th of July?

    Subsequently: 4th, 5th, 3rd then winner Bobby Lewis 12/09

    Sheza Alibi
    Randwick
    Aug 22, 2026

    The 1.4 length 2nd in Race 9

    +2.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Outstanding return by the now 4yo mare which strongly suggests she's set to go to a new level this time in. Settled 4.5 lengths from the lead at the 800 going -5.3 lengths below benchmark, before +7.4 from the 800 to 400. That's an outstanding 12.7 length mid race squeeze and particularly off a decent tempo. Last 400 was +1.1, but the 200 increments underlined how good the performance was. Lost 5.7 lengths in a "whole field" showdown from the 400 to 200, before a 2.8 rebound last 200 which was the 11th best of the day. Her first up PB was +0.7 so she's smashed that and her +4.7 all time PB looks in jeopardy!

    Subsequently: Winner Makybe Diva 12/09 Flemington

    Fovea
    Gosford
    Aug 31, 2026

    The 6 length winner of trial 13

    +0.2 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the session

    Summary

    Wowee! Unraced filly who trialled excellently at Warwick Farm 18/08 winning easily with the 7th best of the session and -3.8 lengths above benchmark, but this has been blistering. Best of the session including the best last 600 of the morning and still the 4th best last 400 and 200 a "space" in front under a hold. The benchmark was +0.1 and +2.4 last two sections. This is the type of trial that could win a strong Saturday city race, and she'll start off presumably in a maiden. If she brings this only bad luck could beat her.

    Subsequently: Bolted in on debut Kembla 12/09

    Skyhook
    Gosford
    Aug 31, 2026

    The 1.5 length winner of trial 2

    +0.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd of the session

    Summary

    Let's cut to the chase: This was an outstanding trial at race pace that says he's going to take a power of beating when he goes to the races. -3.5 settling 2 lengths from the lead at the 800, before +0.8 and +0.3 last two sections which included a 1.1 length slowdown from the 400 to 200 and the 4th best last 600 of the morning. He's coming off a short break from the QLD carnival with his last run 13/06 when winning the Gunsynd on heavy ground at Eagle Farm, with best to date IVR figures of +1.2 and +1.1. He's a stallion clearly learning his craft, and his best looks still in front of him.

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 12/09

    Warwoven
    Randwick
    Aug 14, 2026

    The nose winner of trial 2

    -3.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 18th on the day

    Summary

    One of the boom 2yo's of last season, and right on point to progress as a spring 3yo. Peaked winning the Group 3 Pago Pago mid-March with -0.3 lengths below benchmark, but that was after being forced to miss the Magic Millions when favourite due to a setback. Here -13.3 and -0.2 first two section, but a very slick turn of foot closing with +3.0 last 400 said he's right on point. In fact the 200 increments show more. -1.1 from the 600 to 400, before +2.1 from the 400 to 200. That's a 3.2 length pick up over 200 metres which is super sharp. Last 200 was +0.9 meaning a 1.2 length drop off, so a big fitness elevation to come too!

    Subsequently: Unplaced first up then winner Rosehill 12/09

    Warwoven
    Rosehill
    Aug 29, 2026

    The 2.9 length 5th in Race 8

    -1.0 lengths below benchmark ranked 12th on the day

    Summary

    Boom 2yo from his debut win at Randwick 20/12 ranked 4th on the day, but missed the Magic Millions due to a setback. This excellent "hidden" return however says he could have a big race in him this spring. Went back on a leaders track with little market support going -4.4 at the 800, before +4.1 from the 800 to 400. That's a blistering 8.5 length mid race squeeze. The run ended with +2.3 from the 400 to 200, but just +0.1 last 200 in isolation. The best last 800, and 3rd best last 600 and 400 of the day however is an excellent metric, with the 22nd best last 200 showing the taper. Caulfield Guineas target??

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 12/09 at $8

    Savvy Hallie
    Randwick
    Feb 28, 2026

    The 0.2 length 2nd in Race 7

    +1.5 lengths above benchmark ranked 5th

    Summary

    Just failed to cause an upset in nearly holding off hot odds-on favourite TEMPTED, and while she had a favourable race shape thanks to a genius Nash Rawiller ride, the reality is she's posted a high quality top 5 performance and extended her PB from +0.4 set at the Gold Coast. -1.6, +1.4 and +0.6 over the 3 sections underlined the near perfection from the jockey with the evenness of the 3 splits. While clearly race fit, her capacity to handle wet tracks also looks an asset further into the carnival. 

    Subsequently: Unplaced in Coolmore and spelled. 2nd up Sheraco winner Rosehill 12/09

    Litzdeel
    Caulfield
    Aug 29, 2026

    The 1.2 length 2nd in Race 3

    +0.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    Ready! Good quality staying mare with a terrific Flemington record and looks on point to try and get a Melbourne Cup "golden ticket" via the Archer or Bart Cummings. -1.7 at the 800 was a 3.5 length elevation in early speed from first up 3 weeks earlier, and had her 2 lengths from the lead. -1.7 and -3.7 last 2 sections, but this included a flat spot slowdown of a length from the 400 to 200. Last 200 saw a one length rebound and this IVR figure is a new PB. Won Cup Day last spring over 2800 with -1.2, and produced -0.5 when 2nd up at 2000 March. Everything points to her now being at a new level this time in.

    Subsequently: Winner Archer Flemington 12/09

    Paradoxium
    Rosehill
    Aug 21, 2026

    The 1.7 length winner of trial 6

    -0.1 length below benchmark ranked best of the session

    Summary

    Boom 2yo who had to miss the Magic Millions after a setback when favourite off a blistering best of the day debut win at Wyong 10/12 when -2.3 lengths below benchmark, but after explosive early speed of +2.0 and +0.8 first two sections. Went on to win the Todman with -1.7 before tapering into the Golden Slipper (when trapped wide on a hot tempo) and the Sires Produce. This however was brilliant and says he's a key 3yo spring player. -5.3, +4.2 and -0.7 over the 3 sections meant genuine race simulation. Importantly he rebounded sharply off a slowdown from the 400 to 200 over the last 200. He's coming to play soon!

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 12/09

    Not on my watch
    Warwick Farm
    Aug 18, 2026

    The 0.5 length winner of trial 8

    -4.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 11th of the morning

    Summary

    Excellent from this unraced 3yo which says "go to the races and win" with ordinary luck and health. What he showed in his 2nd trial this time in (4th overall) was a blistering turn of foot when asked. -6.6 at the 800 when 2.4 lengths from the lead before -3.1 in the mid race and +1.3 last 400. What the 200 increments show however, was the acceleration and it was real. -0.4 from the 800 to 600 then slowed under a hold going just -2.7 from the 600 to 400. Then +1.7 from the 400 to 200 and that meant a blistering 4.4 length pick up then shut down. 7th best last 400 of the morning but just the 44th best last 200. Ready to go!

    Subsequently: 2nd Gosford 28/08 then winner Hawkesbury 10/09

    Buccleuch
    Sandown Hillside
    Aug 22, 2026

    The 4.5 length winner of Race 2

    -1.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 7th on the day

    Summary

    Big return! Resumed with good market support despite 196 days away, and then aided by the last scratching of hot favourite CRUISERWEIGHT, but it's hard to think he wouldn't have beaten him too with this effortless win. -4.6 at the 800 stalking the leaders before -5.3 in the mid race. Last 400 was benchmark, but note losing 1.6 lengths over the last 200 in isolation via whatever combination of having the race won and conditioning. He was a very promising late 2yo winning 3 in a row including 2 at Flemington with booming ground made up figures, but didn't come up in two summer runs. He's got more wins in store.

    Subsequently: Winner Sandown 09/07

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.