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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
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15th August
9am Saturday

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Borderfall
    Warwick Farm
    Aug 4, 2026

    The 4.5 length winner of Trial 14

    -0.1 lengths below benchmark ranked best of the session

    Summary

    A 4yo maiden and won't be for long off this trial! Debut was in the market at Scone when 2nd favourite, but tapered badly after showing good speed in front. Here was shut down late after owning the 786 metre trial, as seen via the 4th best last 600, the 8th best last 400, but the 33rd best last 200 of the session. Importantly he ranked one overall, and his Rosehill 900 trial saw him close up under a big hold in severe traffic. You'd think he'd be breaking through very shortly.

    Subsequently: First up winner Wyong 16/08

    Althoff
    Rosehill
    Aug 1, 2026

    The 1.2 length 2nd in Race 9

    -2.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 19th on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced 5yo with a big return that says there's more wins to come, noting he's effectively only had one full prep as a gelding. Here settled 6 lengths from the lead going -6.1 lengths below benchmark at the 800, before -5.1 in the mid race so "barely moving". However the close was outstanding. +3.7 lengths above benchmark last 400, with +2.6 lengths last 200 in isolation. The daily rankings had him the 7th best last 600, the 2nd best last 200 and the best last 200 of the day. He's got a PB of benchmark set at Randwick 24/01 when 4th up. Can be followed with confidence this campaign. 

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 15/08

    Chilly Girl
    Rosehill
    Jan 31, 2026

    The 0.3 length winner of Race 4

    -2.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 23rd on the day

    Summary

    A solid debut win and faster than the colts albeit under a different structure, but we caveat much more is required if she's to go on and win the Golden Slipper. Shared the lead going -1.2 at the 800, then suffered a 1.2 length mid race slowdown with -2.4 in the mid race. That loss of momentum says there's confidence that there should be more to come, given she rebounded to -0.8 last 400 and last bit best bit benchmark last 200 in isolation. This was also seen via the 25th best last 600, but the 8th best last 200 of the day. We look forward to tracking her progress. 

    Subsequently: Spelled. First up winner Rosebud Rosehill Listed level 15/08

    Ten Commandments
    Flemington
    Jun 20, 2026

    The 2.2 length winner of Race 5

    -2.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    First prep new stable and airborne! Has dominantly won both starts for them in contrasting race shapes firstly at Sandown with -4.5 ranked 2nd on the Sunday card but closing with the best last 600, 400 and 200 of the day off a soft (-9.5 at the 800) tempo. This was a contrasting +5.8 at the 800 when 3 lengths from the leaders who were clearly overdoing it. To underline it was 15.3 faster race to race first section and on soft ground! -0.9 in the mid race before -11.1 last 400 running away. Despite that lost 3 lengths over the last 200 underlining there should be more to come. We'll stick with him until the information changes!

    Subsequently: 3rd Caulfield 11/07 then winner Caulfield 15/08

    Natural Fling
    Caulfield
    May 9, 2026

    The 3 length winner of Race 1

    -2.0 lengths below benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    Very nice debut despite a modest IVR time. Firstly ran right to her tight price off sharp trials, and secondly made the top ten on the day, and thirdly over 1100 which is more of a test. -0.1 and -0.5 first two sections on soft ground was good speed, and of her -4.3 last 400, -4.0 of that was just the last 200. Whatever the combination of conditioning drop off and "having the race won" was, it strongly suggests there's further improvement to come. This was also seen via the 8th best last 600, but just the 24th best last 200 of the day. At this time of year, anything -1 to benchmark is usually a winning 2yo IVR figure.

    Subsequently: 2nd Gold Coast to THE NEXT EPISODE 22/05 and spelled. First up Caulfield winner 15/08

    Darkbonee
    Flemington
    Aug 1, 2026

    The 1.2 length 2nd in Race 4

    -1.3 lengths below benchmark

    Summary

    Lightly raced 5yo starting his 2nd local prep, and he's resumed with a cracking run and a new PB from -1.7 (twice), and of note it's significantly higher than two previous 1st up runs, and the rail being out meant his get-back style had him disadvantaged. -5.7 at the 800 had him 5.5 lengths from the lead, before +2.2 in the mid race meaning a very strong 8 length squeeze. He continued it home with +4.5 last 400. The last 200 however was a 1.6 length taper which strongly suggests conditioning upside to come. He's won both his 2nd up runs to date, and looks set to take beating next start too.

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield 15/08

    Cosmic Crusader
    Caulfield
    Jul 25, 2026

    The 2.5 length winner of Race 7

    +1.0 length above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    An outstanding return from the Group 1 WA winner of last carnival's Northerly over 1800 metres when producing his PB of +2.6 lengths above benchmark over Railway winner WATCH ME ROCK. Just -7.5 lengths below benchmark at the 800 when 2.7 lengths from the soft tempo leader, before he "went to work" big time. +0.5 from the 800 to 400 meaning a booming 8 length squeeze, before +1.9 last 400. The 200 increments told a tale. +1.9 from the 600 to 400, which he matched from the 400 to 200, before just +0.1 last 200. That taper strongly suggests more to come and soon! The Lawrence looks ideal next start.

    Subsequently: Winner Lawrence 15/08

    Eliyass
    Randwick
    Sep 21, 2024

    The 0.4 length winner of Race 5

    +2.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 8th on the day

    Summary

    Three Australian runs all Randwick 2000, three wins, and now three times in Sizzlers as he continues to improve. -2.9 in June, +0.5 August where we wrote "we look forward to measuring his progress" and now another big step forward, he's "there" as a genuine Metropolitan threat, with his likely requirement to be able to drag this level to 2400. -6.1 at the 800 when stalking the lead, +4.8 from the 800 to 400 was a solid 10.9 length squeeze, before a very strong +7.0 last 400. This included a 0.8 length slowdown from the 600 to 400. With an established wet track proven profile he seems to be perfectly placed whatever conditions are ahead.

    REPOST AFTER 2ND UP WINNER RANDWICK 08/08/26 AFTER A STABLE SWITCH. 

    Napoleonic
    Randwick
    Jul 31, 2026

    The 0.5 length 2nd in Trial 2

    -2.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 6th on the trial session

    Summary

    4yo stallion who can still have his best in front of him with his current PB sitting at +1.9 lengths above benchmark when a close up 8th to multiple Group 1 winners JOLIESTAR and BEIWACHT 2nd up last prep, after +0.6 resuming at Randwick when 2nd to star sprinting filly TEMPTED. Here -4.5, -1.8 and -2.4 over the three sections, but of note he lost 3 lengths over the last 200 under a hold when passed by the high class NINJA. In addition on very wet ground he beat the winner by 5 lengths in a lead in trial 20/07. That strongly suggests he'll be turning up fit and ready to run boldly in the Missile Stakes.

    Subsequently: 2nd to fellow trial runner NINJA Missile 08/08 Randwick

    Ninja
    Randwick
    Jul 31, 2026

    The 0.5 length winner of trial 3

    -2.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 3rd on the trial session

    Summary

    Promising lightly raced 4yo who controversially failed to win the Magic Millions 3yo on protest, but either side of that bolted in at Eagle Farm with +0.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day, and won at Randwick over 1400 with -0.4 lengths below benchmark. Here under race like pressure has produced work that says he'll be coming to play first up. -4.9 at the 800, before -2.6 in the mid race stalking the leaders. Closed with -0.4 last 400, but note +1.1 from the 400 to 200, before -1.5 last 200. That's perfect to really improve from fitness wise. His current best first up figure is benchmark and that look set to be eclipsed.

    Subsequently: First up Missile winner Randwick 08/08

    Ninja
    Eagle Farm
    Jan 3, 2026

    The 4.8 length winner of Race 7

    +0.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Elevated from his PB first up when -0.1 lengths below benchmark at Doomben and 3rd, but this was a domination which screamed he's an emerging horse of serious promise. -1.4 at the 800 had him tagging the lead 7.5 lengths. Produced an excellent 6 length squeeze given the high pressure with +4.4 in the mid race, before +0.1 last 400 with rider Berry "shutting him down" late. First up in traffic he close with a booming +7.1 best last 600 and 400 of the day showing his turn of foot capacity. Should take obvious beating at the Gold Coast over 1400 in his target race Magic Millions Day.

    Subsequently: 2nd Magic Millions Day 17/01 then winner Rosehill 21/02. REPOST AFTER MISSILE STAKES WIN FIRST UP RANDWICK 08/08

    Melanite
    Gold Coast
    Jan 17, 2026

    The 0.8 length winner of Race 1

    -0.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    First up and clearly wound up to win the $250,000 maiden with accompanying good market support, but this performance says they'll be more wins to come given it was top 11 on the iconic deep Magic Millions Gold Coast meeting. -3.0 at the 800, +3.0 in the mid race and +3.2 says a near perfectly efficient Ethan Brown ride albeit with a 1.1 length slowdown from the 400 to 200. Lightly raced and this is just his 3rd run as a gelding with his first two on very wet ground. If he holds this figure a Saturday Sydney metro Midway looks an ideal progression from here.

    REPOST AFTER 3 UP WINNER RANDWICK 08/08

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.