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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Flemington
18th July
NOW POSTED WITH $10 VOUCHER BACK ON PURCHASE

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Kaleo
    Flemington
    Jun 6, 2026

    Dead Heat Race 3

    -2.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 10th on the day

    Summary

    Has returned airborne now gelded, going from a luckless/poorly ridden 2nd at Geelong with just -9.4 lengths below IVR benchmark overall, but with a booming +5.1 last 400, to -3.9 at Sandown when 2nd to all the way winning stablemate on a "gluey" leaders track, to -2.5 here. Just -11.7 at the 800, before -3.8 in the mid race and -5.1 last 400 which included a 2.4 length dip from the 400 to 200. He's again produced a solid wet track indicator (+5.4) and he's set to remain a key player through the winter in similar 3yo company. Stepping to 2000 looks no issue if asked. 

    Subsequently: Twice unplaced then winner Flemington 18/07 at $12

    Saint George
    Flemington
    Jan 17, 2026

    The 0.4 length winner of Race 8

    -0.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    Five runs this time in, four of them very good with the only miss on the poor Ballarat Cup day track, and there still looks to be more to come, as he's get to run beyond 2000 range this time in. -1.7 at the 800 stalking the lead, before +3.2 and +2.3 last two sections which included a 1.4 length slowdown from the 400 to 200. Has a "better further" overseas profile, and now with an excellent grounding after missing 341 days, looks ready to take beating in summer stakes staying races. 

    Subsequently: Unplaced Flemington 14/02 and spelled. 2nd up winner Flemington 18/07

    Midnight Dynamite
    Randwick
    Jun 20, 2026

    The 1.6 length winner of Race 9

    +0.3 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    We sizzled this tactically versatile 4yo with a terrific strike rate after his Doomben win 16/05 before his last start 2nd here over 1300 when planted wide throughout. Here with a well judged Collett ride settled 6 lengths from the lead at the 800 going -10.1, before +1.2 and +1.3 last two sections winning running away. His mid race squeeze of 11.2 was the best of his career, and his overall IVR figure just below his +0.6 PB from here November. The Winter Stakes and/or Winter Challenge at Rosehill look ideal, or perhaps a return north for the Sunshine Coast Glasshouse?

    Subsequently: 3rd Winter Stakes Rosehill 04/07 then winner Winter Challenge Rosehill 18/07

    Changing Colours
    Rosehill
    Dec 7, 2025

    The 0.9 length 2nd in Race 7

    -0.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 15th on the day

    Summary

    Slow maturing 5yo mare 1st up having just her 12th career start, and this was her best resuming run to date. (From -2.0 previously at her 2nd career start October 2024.) -6.2 at the 800 had her 6 lengths from the lead, before -0.1 and +4.1 last two sections. This matched her 2nd best ever performance when winning here over 1400 in June, and just below -0.6 all time PB. Looks set to sail past that from here, and given this is just BM78 class, similar and up to 1400 from here looks ideal.

    Subsequently: Unplaced 03/01 before 2nd Rosehill 17/01, and unplaced again. Spelled and switched stables. 2nd up Flemington winner 18/07.

    Bold Soul
    Flemington
    Jun 20, 2026

    The 1.7 length 3rd in race 3

    -5.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 36th on the day

    Summary

    Despite the low IVR figure the context is he's clearly set for the final in a fortnight, and was put into the race early unlike his previous two starts. -12.1 lengths below benchmark at the 800 was 3rd line, but 18 lengths faster first section race to race. -1.4 from the 800 to 400 meant a 10.7 length mid race squeeze and a combined 20.4 lengths more speed race to race first two sections while stepping from 2000 to 2520 metres. Last 400 was the telling part of just -8.4, in contrast to his usual "last bit best bit" profile. He's best on "just" soft to good surfaces, so improved ground in 14 days would be ideal for him to bring his A-game.

    Subsequently: 2nd Flemington 04/07 then winner Flemington 18/07

    Saint George
    Flemington
    Jun 20, 2026

    The 2.9 length 4th in Race 8

    -3.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 8th on the day

    Summary

    A hidden run, but first up off 126 days away with market softness strongly suggests a big elevation from here. Settled 7.4 lengths from the lead going -6.0 at the 800, before -0.7 from the 800 to 400 meaning a +5.3 length squeeze. Peaked on his run there closing with -4.9 and that's where big improvement can be expected. Last prep 2nd up here was narrowly beaten Cup Day with an excellent -0.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 6th on the day, and a similar elevation would see him deep in the finish in the Winter Final if heading there in a fortnight. Either way another successful prep can be expected. 

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 18/07

    King Pedro
    Rosehill
    Jun 13, 2026

    The nose 2nd in Race 4

    -3.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 30th on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced Ex-NZ in his 2nd local prep who just missed here including a dismissed protest, but he's A1 ready for ongoing success in staying races, after also being narrowly defeated at Gosford previous run when -0.2 lengths below benchmark on adjusted IVR figures. Just -15.6 lengths below benchmark at the 800 had him 6 lengths from the lead, before a very strong 14.4 length squeeze with -1.2 from the 800 to 400. Last 400 was +1.5, but note a 2 length slowdown from the 400 to 200, before a 2.2 length rebound late. He'll thrive with a stronger tempo and/or stepping up in trip from here.

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 27/06 then winner Grafton Cup 16/07

    Benevac
    Rosehill
    Jun 13, 2026

    The nose 2nd in Race 6

    -0.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Just missed 2nd up getting away from bog heavy ground also here over 1100 a fortnight earlier. (raw time here -7.0 v -23.9!) Settled 3 lengths from the lead going -2.8 at the 800 and matched it in the mid race. Last 400 was -1.4 including last bit best bit -0.3 last 200. Wet track indicator was only +2.2, so could well be looking for better going? This is very basic BM72 company and at this time of year his +0.1 PB would be good enough to win similar. 

    Subsequently: 2nd Rosehill 27/06 then winner Randwick 11/07

    Sir Delius
    Flemington
    Oct 4, 2025

    The 1.8 length winner of Race 8

    +4.3 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Import with four local runs and four appearances in Sizzlers, and has smashed his +2.5 level set first up when a narrow 2nd Randwick mile. Found a very slow tempo race shape going -13.9 lengths below benchmark in the strike zone 2.4 lengths from the lead. From there produced a booming 19 length squeeze with +5.0 from the 800 to 400, before +6.2 last 400. The last 600 micro-splits were +4.0, +3.1 and +3.1 so a perfect distribution of energy. Whether he can rise again into the Cox Plate is a query given the VIA SISTINA best level, but he's perfectly poised for the Melbourne Cup this far out.

    REPOST AFTER QUEEN ELIZABETH WIN 11/04.

    Coeur Volente
    Caulfield
    Jun 27, 2026

    The one length winner of Race 8

    -0.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Good quality older mare who elevated from her "no time" (-4.8) length below benchmark win at Sandown a fortnight earlier. -8.4 lengths below benchmark had her 5.5 lengths from the leaders who were creating good speed relative to the soft ground. -0.4 in the mid race meant a 8.5 length squeeze which set up the win. Last 400 was just -4.1 which was sound relative to the condition. Another excellent wet track indicator figure of +8.5, and she's comfortably a +1.0 range performer on top of the ground at her best. The Lawrence back her mid August looks ideal.

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield 11/07

    Navy Pilot
    Bendigo
    May 2, 2026

    The 1.8 length winner of Race 7

    +0.8 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Let's cut to the chase: This is a horse to follow! 1st up 3rd prep, but first as a gelding and turned up with this best of day smashing of his previous PB of -1.7 lengths below benchmark set first up last time in when 3rd at Flemington. He then won at Sandown with -2.3 before two unplaced runs at Group 1 level. 179 days later settled back going -5.4 lengths below benchmark at the 800, before +2.7 in the mid race meaning a very strong 8 length squeeze, and +7.2 last 400. Some context via the best last 800 and 600 of the day, but the 19th best last 200 shows there's still fitness to come. As should be more wins!

    Subsequently: twice unplaced QLD then winner Doomben 11/07

    Winnasedge
    Caulfield
    Jun 27, 2026

    The 1.2 length winner of Race 9

    -0.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Back to Caulfield and back in the winners list having last won (twice) here in February and March 2025. Got the perfect run stalking the leader going -3.9 at the 800, before -1.4 in the mid race and -5.8 last 400. Dropped right off late under this sustained pressure - allowing for the soft ground - with just -4.0 last 200. This was also seen via the 49th best last 200 of the day in an 1100 sprint. Was 3rd up after missing 350 days racing, so can improve again from here conditioning wise. His PB sits at +0.2, and that says he's ready for an open sprint at this time of year.

    Subsequently: Winner Monash Caulfield 11/07

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.