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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Caulfield
APRIL 4
NOW POSTED

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Rope Them In
    Ascot
    Nov 29, 2025

    The 1.5 length 4th in Race 9

    +0.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    In a nutshell: The perfect Gold Rush trial! Found an unusually soft tempo Winterbottom sprint, where at the 800 he was going -7.2 lengths below benchmark but only 5 lengths from the lead. -2.1 in the mid race meant a 5 length squeeze, before last bit best bit +5.3 last 400. Was off a four week freshen and back from 1400, so everything points to the target being a fortnight from here in the race he ran 5th in last year. (Also after a 4th in this race.) There he completely conceded from wide settling in a non-winning position before the 3rd best last 200 of the day. Has an all time PB of +2.5 and is set to run to it from here.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Gold Rush and spelled. First up Group 3 winner Roma Cup Ascot 04/04

    Sheza Alibi
    Caulfield
    Feb 21, 2026

    The 2.3 length winner of Race 5

    +0.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 8th on the day

    Summary

    Evolving filly from QLD starting her 2nd prep with Moody Coleman and has produced a PB from -0.1 at her last run before the break Derby Day Flemington, and did so first up *screaming* there's more to come. -0.1 sitting 3rd line at the 800, before +1.4 in the mid race and +1.4 last 400. However as was visually obviously she was only clear 200 out, and there after a 2.8 length slowdown from the 600 to 200, produced a quality 2.3 length last 200 turn of foot. Her last 400 is fully franked with 4 performances from +4.0 to +9.7, and as such should keep elevating. We look forward to tracking her progress. 

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick Guineas 07/03. Winner Doncaster 04/04.

    Joliestar
    Randwick
    Feb 14, 2026

    The 1.2 length winner of Race 7

    +3.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Outstanding return from the triple Group 1 winner to a level that says she's could still have her best in front of her! -3.7 lengths below benchmark at the 800 was in her "comfort zone" of relaxing early, before +0.5 in the mid race and +5.5 last 400. Her close included the 2nd best last 800, and the 3rd best last 600 and 400 of the day. Did produce +4.5 (PB) first up last prep but A/ it was over 1100 and B/ clearly fully wound up to get an Everest slot. This conversely sets her up as a "platform" run, and as such her best ever performance this time in would be no surprise. Canterbury Stakes from here?

    Subsequently: Winner Canterbury Stakes Randwick 07/03. Winner TJ Smith 04/04

    Plaintiff
    Rosehill
    Dec 7, 2025

    The nose winner of Race 5

    -0.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    Two from two, and while winning by only a nose, has elevated from -2.1 at the midweek meeting 07/12 also over 1200, and showed real tenacity for the fight when challenged. -3.6 at the 800, before -0.2 in the mid race. Last 400 was +5.2 which matched his close from the start prior. This is just BM72 company, so any improvement from here - likely - can see her win again placed conservatively.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 20/12. Spelled and winner Randwick 04/04

    Merrigold
    Flemington
    Jan 17, 2026

    The 2 length winner of Race 6

    +1.9 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    We actually sizzled her first up when a career best on return Caulfield with +0.4 lengths above benchmark, and closing with the best last 800, 600, 400 and 200 of the middle day of Caulfield Cup week when 1.5 length 3rd. Hadn't put it together thereafter but with various excuses running between 1200 and 1400, with her best -0.3 at Pakenham when $101 in an open handicap. Here found a high and sustained pressure mile and thrived. +2.5 and +2.3 in the first two sections, before +3.6 last 400 after settling 4.2 lengths from the lead early. Clearly coping and thriving with racing and if she holds this figure can win again.

    Subsequently: Twice placed before winner Caulfield 04/04

    Campione D'Italia
    Rosehill
    Mar 21, 2026

    The 2.1 length 4th in Race 8

    -2.0 lengths below benchmark ranked 44th on the day

    Summary

    A brilliant Sires Produce trial! Couldn't go the early brutal speed, settling last going -4.1 lengths below benchmark but 8 lengths from the lead. From there +1.7 in the mid race was a super strong 5.8 length squeeze, before gassing out with -3.9 last 400. However note this included a 2.7 length slowdown from the 400 to 200, before a hard late rebound picking up 1.2 lengths late. This matched his lead in figure when a narrow Randwick winner when similarly having to produce a big exertion from the 800 to 400. Should be very hard to beat stepping up in trip into a near certain softer tempo race shape. 

    Subsequently: Winner Sires Produce Randwick 04/04

    Joliestar
    Randwick
    Mar 7, 2026

    The 0.6 length winner of Race 9

    +3.6 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    4th Group 1 for this outstanding mare, elevating from +3.2 lengths above benchmark 3 weeks earlier when 1st up. -6.4 at the 800, before +2.2 in the mid race and +7.1 last 400, clearly building in each of the last 4 increments. This sets her up to equal her PB of +4.5 set when winning here last September over 1100. Her challenge into a TJ Smith (presumed target) is to date her "kryptonite" has been a high lead speed race shape. Now a 5yo perhaps she's developed the strength to cope?

    Subsequently: Winner TJ Smith Randwick 04/04

    Sheza Alibi
    Randwick
    Mar 7, 2026

    The 3.2 length winner of Race 8

    +4.7 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Headed into the Randwick Guineas as a very promising filly off three consecutive wins with a PB of +0.7 set first up Caulfield, and left as the most promising horse in Australia! The performance was that good, and now only has AUTUMN GLOW in front of her this distance range. The elevation came from seeing "what was under the bonnet" in a race of genuine high and sustained pressure. Settled 4.5 lengths from the lead but going +2.7 lengths above benchmark at the 800, before +4.5 and +2.3 last two sections showing phenomenal sustained speed. +9.5 raw time adjusted down to +4.7. A genuine "no ceiling" runner!

    Subsequently: Winner Doncaster Randwick 04/04

    Green Spaces
    Rosehill
    Mar 21, 2026

    The 1.9 length 2nd in Race 6

    -2.0 lengths below benchmark ranked 43rd on the day

    Summary

    Continues on what seems a "sole focus Derby path" and he's on point, backing up his -2.0 lengths below benchmark figure in the Randwick Guineas, but dragging it to 2000 in an impossible (to run time) slow tempo race shape. Just -11.0 at the 800 when 4 lengths from the lead, then little movement in the mid race going -6.3. However a super strong +3.0 last 400 with last bit best bit +2.5 last 200 said he's on point. Further context was the 11th best last 200 of the day at the end of 2000 metres. His PB sits at +0.5 lengths above benchmark when winning the Group 3 at Newcastle November, and that looks in play from here.

    Subsequently: Winner AJC Derby Randwick 04/04

    Idle Flyer
    Randwick
    Oct 18, 2025

    The 1.4 length winner of Race 4

    +3.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    This was a stunning performance, with the amazing part being not only did she avoid flatness from her lead in run but thrived and increased from a monster clear PB of +3.2 from just -2.0. We need to underline that included a phenomenal reversal of early speed going +5.6 to the 800 after -16.1 the previous start. So here -0.3 at the 800, +4.3 in the mid race before +4.1 last 400. While it included a 0.7 length slight slowdown from the 400 to 200, it showed a generally even distribution of speed and as such says +4 looks her range. That is high class if she can hold it! Golden Eagle or Empire Rose from here???

    Subsequently: Unplaced Empire Rose Derby Day and Spelled. 2nd up winner Rosehill 28/03

    Aeliana
    Rosehill
    Mar 21, 2026

    The 0.3 length winner of Race 5

    +2.4 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Only just won the Ranvet despite being odds on, however the performance should not be underestimated! IVR wise it was a "sideways" run from +2.7 after running 2nd to AUTUMN GLOW in the Group 1 Verry Elleegant, but she's stepped from the mile to 2000, improved her early speed by 8 lengths in going -5.4 at the 800, and produced 2.6 lengths stronger mid-race exertion to high quality leader/runner up LINDEMANN in picking him off closing with +2.7 and +0.3 last two sections. This did include a half length flat spot slowdown from the 400 to 200. Her outstanding Derby win was with +2.3 in her only 2400 run to date.

    Subsequently: Winner Tancred 28/03 Rosehill 

    Light Infantry Man
    Caulfield
    Feb 7, 2026

    The 0.2 length winner of Race 9

    +1.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Brilliant return off just a 70 day freshen coping with high sustained speed. +4.7 and +4.4 in the first two sections, before "least tired late" of -3.1 last 400. This matched his Blamey figure from last March before he won the Australian Cup with +3.1 lengths above benchmark. Didn't really come up in the spring after starting his prep on bog heavy ground, but has brought his A-game and can be expected to maintain it off this run. 

    Subsequently: Unplaced Caulfield 14/03 then winner Australian Cup 28/03

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.