Premium Wagering Analysis

Members from the old Racetrack Ralphy site can request a password reset to reactivate their account

Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
CAULFIELD GUINEAS DAY FORM
10th October
Now posted

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Satono Glow
    Flemington
    Sep 12, 2026

    The 0.4 length winner of Race 3

    -0.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 17th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent return making it two from two up the straight and dragging her PB from -4.6 at Randwick at the end of her last prep to a just below benchmark level. -4.6 at the 800 relaxing 4.7 lengths from the lead, before an excellent best last 800 of the day close with +1.8 and +6.2 last two sections. However note she peaked on her run at the 200 losing 2.5 lengths late. This was also seen via the 3rd best last 400, but just the 19th best last 200 of the day. A new level is likely from here, so returning Turnbull Stakes day looks likely.

    Subsequently: Winner Roman Consul 10/10 Rosehill

    Gerringong
    Eagle Farm
    Jun 27, 2026

    The 2.2 length 3rd in Race 8

    -1.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 23rd on the day

    Summary

    Tempo and position in running against! Just -11.2 at the 800 which was 4.2 lengths from the lead and a minimum 8 to 13 lengths below what her ideal early speed profile has been. -0.5 in the mid race was a solid 10.7 length squeeze from the 800 to 400, before +4.7 last 400. That was the 6th best of the day and the best of her career. (Underlining she's better using speed early.) This was only her 2nd local run, and she clearly ready to win. Will they back her up at the Sunshine Coast???

    Subsequently: 4th Sunshine Coast and spelled. First up winner Rosehill 10/10 Nivison Group 3

    Warwoven
    Rosehill
    Aug 29, 2026

    The 2.9 length 5th in Race 8

    -1.0 lengths below benchmark ranked 12th on the day

    Summary

    Boom 2yo from his debut win at Randwick 20/12 ranked 4th on the day, but missed the Magic Millions due to a setback. This excellent "hidden" return however says he could have a big race in him this spring. Went back on a leaders track with little market support going -4.4 at the 800, before +4.1 from the 800 to 400. That's a blistering 8.5 length mid race squeeze. The run ended with +2.3 from the 400 to 200, but just +0.1 last 200 in isolation. The best last 800, and 3rd best last 600 and 400 of the day however is an excellent metric, with the 22nd best last 200 showing the taper. Caulfield Guineas target??

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 12/09 at $8 then winner Golden Rose at $6, then winner Caulfield Guineas 10/10

    Fierce
    Rosehill
    Aug 7, 2026

    The 0.2 length 2nd in trial 9

    -3.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 3rd of the session

    Summary

    Lightly raced 4yo who typical of the stable looks to be taken along very slowly and with the best still in front of him, and this trial confirms it given he was top 3 of a very strong session. -7.3 at the 800, before blistering closing sections of +2.6 and +1.5 and that included a 2.3 length slowdown/dip from the 400 to 200. Further context is the 3rd best last 800 of the morning. He won a strong Wyong 1000 first up last prep with a best of day -0.4 lengths below benchmark performance that included the best last 600, 400 and 200 of the day. Everything points to him turning up a better horse when he returns this time in.

    Subsequently: Winner Warwick Farm 16/08, before 16/09 Canterbury 2nd and win Rosehill 10/10

    Warwoven
    Randwick
    Aug 14, 2026

    The nose winner of trial 2

    -3.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 18th on the day

    Summary

    One of the boom 2yo's of last season, and right on point to progress as a spring 3yo. Peaked winning the Group 3 Pago Pago mid-March with -0.3 lengths below benchmark, but that was after being forced to miss the Magic Millions when favourite due to a setback. Here -13.3 and -0.2 first two section, but a very slick turn of foot closing with +3.0 last 400 said he's right on point. In fact the 200 increments show more. -1.1 from the 600 to 400, before +2.1 from the 400 to 200. That's a 3.2 length pick up over 200 metres which is super sharp. Last 200 was +0.9 meaning a 1.2 length drop off, so a big fitness elevation to come too!

    Subsequently: Unplaced first up then winner Rosehill 12/09 AND WINNER GOLDEN ROSE 26/09 AND WINNER CAULFIELD GUINEAS 10/10

    Warwoven
    Rosehill
    Sep 26, 2026

    The 3.1 length winner of Race 8

    +5.0 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Outstanding win which immediately elevates him into the top bracket of horses any age anywhere in the country, blowing apart his -0.3 previous PB. What set it up was a brutal lead speed of +13.6 lengths above benchmark at the 800, and he was 2.4 lengths back from that going +11.2. Deterioration understandably set in from there with -0.2 and -0.4 last 2 sections. However note he increased from benchmark to +0.7 from the 400 to 200 to put the race away, before losing 1.9 lengths over the last 200 which was still the best in the race. If he holds this figure and can drag it to 2000 metres, he's a live Cox Plate chance.

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield Guineas 10/10

    Lady Shenandoah
    Randwick
    Aug 22, 2026

    The 4.2 length 4th in Race 9

    -0.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 12th on the day

    Summary

    A seemingly "just fair" 4th, but aside from being behind champion mares AUTUMN GLOW and SHEZA ALIBI, the race shape was dead against. -3.2 at the 800 was good speed 2.4 lengths from the lead, before +6.5 from the 800 to 400. That's a huge 9.7 length squeeze first up off a good tempo. Last 400 was just -3.4 as the exertion told. Last prep 2nd up she produced +2.5 when 3rd at Group 1 level to JOLIESTAR and BEIWACHT over 1300 metres. She's dangerous from here if she can "dodge" the first two home, as she's +4 range high quality when right, and should improve towards that figure from here.

    Subsequently: 4th Rupert Clarke Caulfield 19/09 then winner Toorak Caulfield 10/10

    Persian Spirit
    Caulfield
    Aug 15, 2026

    The 0.3 length 2nd in Race 8

    -0.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent return off a good break of 133 days having had a long prep last time in when effectively racing from September through April -2.8 at the 800 when 2.3 lengths from the lead, before +2.1 in the mid race and -4.8 last 400. Lost 0.8 of a length over the last 200 in isolation strongly suggesting there's a conditioning elevation to come. His two wins at Flemington last time in were +1.9 over 1100 first up then +1.0 Cup Day over 1400, as well as Pakenham Cup Day 1400 with +1.3 so would think he'll be straight up to that distance range from here, or be kept fresh and back up the straight. Either way should improve again.

    Subsequently: 4th Sandown 09/09 Group 3, unplaced 19/09 Rupert Clarke Group 1, then winner Weekend Hussler Caulfield 10/10

    Jigsaw
    Cranbourne
    Sep 14, 2026

    The 3 length winner of trial 1

    -1.0 length below benchmark ranked best of the session

    Summary

    Now 8 years young, but this super sharp trial over 1000 metres, after a solid 800 metre jump out says he's coming to play first up and ignore him at your peril! Three sections were benchmark, -1.5 and +1.2 which included a one length slowdown from the 400 to 200, before a 2.6 length last 200 rebound which was the 9th best of the session with the race won. He produced +1.5 first up last prep and looks set to at least run to that on his return.

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield 1st up 10/10

    Pinhole
    Rosehill
    Sep 26, 2026

    The nose winner of Race 4

    +0.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    Had the perfect run in transit before winning by a nose, but given he was $12 and 2nd up over 1900 metres with a "better further" profile, it could well have been a "bonus win" on the way through. +0.5 at the 800 but 7 lengths from the lead in the high pressure race shape, before +1.1 and +0.6 over the 3 sections. He's only had one local prep with a PB of +0.5 winning at Kenso in June when also thriving in fast tempo over 2400, before 2nd in the Stayers Cup here on soft ground. Highly likely to get a easier set up next as he goes up in trip. The St Leger at Randwick or a trip south for the Herbert Power next???

    Subsequently: Winner Herbert Power 10/10

    Athracite
    Rosehill
    Sep 12, 2026

    The 2.7 length winner of Race 4

    +2.0 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Wow! This was an outstanding performance with an IVR figure of stakes level in a BM78, so here's the reality: He only has to hold it to keep winning through the grades. 6yo with an unusual profile bolting in three races in a row when starting his career mid 2025 in South Australia. Didn't come up in two Sydney runs earlier this year when switching to Joe Pride, but this time in has kept building to this "explosion." What's clear in the data is being allowed to roll at pace set him up: +5.5 lengths above benchmark leading at the 800 was the clear fastest of his career, before +1.6 and -0.5. We look forward to measuring his progress.

    Subsequently: 3rd Rosehill 26/09 then winner Rosehill 10/10

    Point Barrow
    Caulfield
    Sep 19, 2026

    The 0.3 length winner of Race 6

    +0.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 18th on the day

    Summary

    Evolving 4yo mare who should still have her best in front of her noting she started favourite in the Oakleigh Plate February when 5th in an on-pace race. This conversely was the perfect race shape with Mark Zahra also being the first to take advantage of the A1 lanes. -2.5 at the 800 was 4.2 lengths from the lead, before closing with +3.1 and +3.8 last 2 sections typical of her capacity to produce and sustain an 800 metre sprint which in this case was the 5th best of the day. Looks a key player in high quality local sprints this carnival. 

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield 10/10

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.