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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

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Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Rey Magnerio
    Flemington
    Oct 24, 2026

    The 1.5 length 4th in Race 5

    +0.1 length above benchmark ranked 15th on the day

    Summary

    Ready! Improved from -1.5 first up at Caulfield and in a challenging race shape where leader MAZU was "off and gone" creating high heat. -6.2 at the 800 had him 8 lengths from the front in a non-winning position, but closing with +0.2 and +1.6 was an excellent sustained chase. A 6.4 length mid race squeeze is at the outer end of his capacity, and sets him up to be fully fit 3rd up. They may go back to the 1000 Oaks Day again before his WA return, but either way he's set to run to his consistent +1.7 to +2.6 range best (winning the 1400 Gold Rush) from here ongoing.

    Subsequently: Winner Oaks Day Flemington 04/11

    Proxima Dea
    Randwick
    Oct 24, 2026

    The 1.5 length winner of Race 7

    -1.1 length above benchmark ranked 22nd on the day

    Summary

    Unbeaten filly making it five from five and collecting her first Group 1 in the process. Went forward going +4.6 lengths above benchmark at the 800 in a genuine pressure race shape compared to just -10 first section in her lead in a fortnight earlier, before -2.3 and -1.4 last two sections, being shut down late with the race won. Only has to hold her level to take a power of beating in the VRC Oaks in 12 days time. Her tactical versatility looks an ongoing weapon for her.

    Subsequently: VRC Oaks winner 

    Nobler
    Gosford
    May 9, 2026

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 5

    +0.5 lengths above benchmark ranked 8th on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him from a fortnight earlier despite just -2.8 lengths below benchmark given he came from a near non-winning position, and crushed the line with the 3rd best last 400 and best last 200 of the day. Here the race shape was significantly different and he thrived on it. -1.8 at the 800 was 11.5 lengths faster first section race to race, before +2.1 in the mid race and -0.1 last 400. This gives him both the speed and the "miles in legs" base, to step up in trip. This is just BM72 level and he's produced an open handicap performance. Can work through the grades and continue winning without surprise. 

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 13/06. Spelled then 2nd up winner Oaks Day Flemington 05/11

    Stonecrest
    Randwick
    Oct 23, 2026

    The 0.8 length winner of trial 5

    -5.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Unraced colt who'll be winning races off this and would be no surprise if the first is on debut when he steps out. On the soft ground a raw time of just -13.5 lengths below benchmark, but this lines up very strongly with the other 5 heats this trip (1050 metres) that included open and stakes horses. -6.6, -3.3 and -3.6 over the 3 sections, and relative to the soft ground this was race simulation as the stable like asking of their horses. He was 9th best of the trials here 06/10 over 740 metres so there's "back up" merit to his profile. 

    Subsequently: Debut winner Gosford 04/11

    You're Not The King
    Rosehill
    Sep 22, 2026

    The 1.9 length 2nd in trial 2

    -4.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 18th on the day

    Summary

    Ex-QLD with just 3 starts but a solid best of -1.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 5th of the day Eagle Farm 2nd career start. Now with Bjorn Baker and is set to go to the races and run boldly. Trialled Rosehill 08/09 winning easily with -4.0 lengths below benchmark ranked 8th of the morning, and he was super sharp late after a slowdown. Lost 2.1 lengths from the 400 to 200, before a sharp 3.2 length late rebound. Here found "race simulation" chasing the flying MISS SCANDAL. -6.5 then +1.0 in the mid race. That 7.5 length squeeze is the come on for a big first up run! Last 400 included a 1.7 length slowdown from the 400 to 200.

    Subsequently: Winner Hawkesbury 08/10. Winner Warwick Farm 21/10. Winner Grey race Oaks Day Flemington!

    Agent Zero
    Randwick
    May 23, 2026

    The 0.4 length winner of Race 5

    -1.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Slow maturing 3yo who thrived in the wet conditions, and produced a clear PB from Canberra a fortnight earlier when winning with -4.7 lengths below benchmark. Here stalked the leaders going -10.3 at the 800, before -5.0 in the mid race and +1.3 last 400, with last bit best bit under full pressure picking up 2.2 lengths last 200. This is just BM72 level, so if he holds this IVR figure, he's likely to win again at this time of year. 

    Subsequently: Unplaced 06/06 and spelled. 2nd up winner Randwick 31/10

    Fundamental Nature
    Sandown
    Sep 5, 2026

    The 0.3 length 3rd in race 4

    -5.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 34th on the day

    Summary

    Just missed after simply being in a non-winning position not only 6 lengths from the lead at the 800, but still 4 lengths from the lead at the 400 in a "walking" tempo race shape. -11.4 and -9.7 first two sections into the wind impacted race shape, before +4.1 last 400 with the last 200 in isolation +3.3 on soft ground. The context was that 200 at the end of 1300 metres, was faster than any other race on the day including both 1000 metre races one of which was the Group 1 Moir! We rarely highlight the flash home runners, but this was explosive. She's set to sail past her -2.4 PB and can win similar to this BM74 shortly.

    Subsequently: Twice unplaced before winner Melbourne Cup Day Flemington 03/11

    Juja Kibo
    Flemington
    Oct 24, 2026

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 7

    +2.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Just airborne off a +2.5 when 2nd in a blistering 2000 at Randwick before winning the Metrop with +2.0, and in that and here found a soft tempo/monster closing race shape. Just -17.3 lengths below benchmark at the 800 had him 8.2 lengths from the lead, before +3.1 in the mid race meaning a huge 20.4 mid race squeeze. Closed with +7.3 last 400 which included +5.0 last 200. Even allowing for the soft tempo and getting deep into the lanes, the 5th best last 200 of the day at the end of 2500 is slick. Should run boldly in the Melbourne Cup Grand Final clearly in career best form.

    Subsequently: 3rd Melbourne Cup

    Zahrann
    Caulfield
    Sep 19, 2026

    The 1 length winner of Race 8

    +2.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    Bring on the Caulfield Cup! We sizzled him from his big 4th 3 weeks earlier here over 1700 when -0.2 lengths below benchmark in the high pressure race shape, and this significant elevation sets him up for the Group 1 prize. -4.5 at the 800 had him 4.2 lengths from the lead, before +1.9 and +4.0 last two sections showing excellent sustained closing staying speed, but it did included a 0.5 length late taper over the last 200. That says more to come conditioning wise. Placed at Royal Ascot in 2025 is very "real" form and it was over 2414 metres.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Turnbull and Caulfield Cup before 2nd in the Melbourne Cup $41 into $26

    Sabaj
    Caulfield
    Sep 19, 2026

    The 5.5 length 11th in Race 9

    Benchmark ranked 28th on the day

    Summary

    Well beaten but ready! Found a high pressure race shape which meant settling 10.5 lengths from the lead at the 800 had him in a non-winning position going -7.0 lengths below benchmark. +6.7 from the 800 to 400 was a 13.6 length squeeze and it was the biggest of the day, with a last 400 of +5.1. This included a 1.2 length slowdown from the 400 to 200, before a sharp 1.8 length rebound. Produced the 4th best last 600 and 200 of the day, and it sets him up to run to his best in the Toorak or possibly Epsom from here. His PB is currently +3.2 set in the All Star Mile and a favourable race shape could see him eclipse that.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Toorak before winner Melbourne Cup Day 03/11

    Skyhook
    Gosford
    Aug 31, 2026

    The 1.5 length winner of trial 2

    +0.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd of the session

    Summary

    Let's cut to the chase: This was an outstanding trial at race pace that says he's going to take a power of beating when he goes to the races. -3.5 settling 2 lengths from the lead at the 800, before +0.8 and +0.3 last two sections which included a 1.1 length slowdown from the 400 to 200 and the 4th best last 600 of the morning. He's coming off a short break from the QLD carnival with his last run 13/06 when winning the Gunsynd on heavy ground at Eagle Farm, with best to date IVR figures of +1.2 and +1.1. He's a stallion clearly learning his craft, and his best looks still in front of him.

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 12/09 and winner Rosehill 26/09. REPOST AFTER WINNING GOLDEN EAGLE

    Flying For Fun
    Warwick Farm
    Sep 3, 2026

    The 3.2 length 6th in trial 1

    -7.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 37th of the session

    Summary

    A hidden trial, but after smashing the line here in her first trial 18/08 with the 3rd best last 200 of the session, this 2nd one strongly suggests this high class sprinting mare will be a "player" in quality sprints this time in and should not be underestimated when she returns to the races. Asked to "do nothing" under a big hold from McDonald settling 4.3 lengths from the lead, but her 200 increments showed +1.1, +0.9, -0.8 and +3.1. That says a 1.7 length slow down from the 400 to 200, before an electric 3.9 length turn of foot late. She won first up last prep with +0.8, and has a fully franked +7 range last 400 close. Stand by!

    Subsequently: 2nd up Caulfield Group 2 placing before winner Flemington 31/10

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.