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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Caulfield
February 7
NOW POSTED

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Santanova
    Ascot
    Nov 29, 2025

    The nose winner of Race 1

    -0.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 15th on the day

    Summary

    With the caveat this is just a no metro win past year sprint, and it was a blanket finish, the reality was this 4yo mare starting just her 3rd prep with a "better further" profile, has resumed with a clear career PB from -2.3. Relaxed early going -3.5 at the 800 when 4 lengths from the lead in sharp tempo, before +0.2 in the mid race and +3.9 last 400. Context was the best last 800 and 600 of the day, but still the 4th best last 200 so clearly turned up fit. Any improvement from here over 1100-1200 should see her be able to work through the grades placed conservatively.

    Subsequently: Twice unplaced then winner Ascot 17/01, and winner Ascot 07/02

    Observer
    Moonee Valley
    Oct 25, 2025

    The 0.5 length winner of race 9

    -1.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 34th on the day

    Summary

    Clearly an emerging talent who came on from his luckless Caulfield Guineas 3rd when -1.2 lengths below benchmark, to win this with effortless ease. While his figure was slightly inferior, jockey Zahra took such a hold at the 100 metre mark that the stewards fined him. -4.6 at the 800 leading at a cruise, and was able to repeat with -4.7 mid race. His last 400 was +2.2, but lost 1.6 lengths last 200 under that forced slowdown. Could not have had an easier lead in race shape for Saturday's Derby where he's sure to start very short odds.

    Subsequently: Winner Derby 01/11. First up winner Caulfield 07/02

    Prince Levi
    Eagle Farm
    Dec 20, 2025

    The nose 2nd in Race 2

    -2.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 24th on the day

    Summary

    Just missed, but a good 2nd up elevation from -6.2 three weeks earlier at Doomben over a mile. -1.5 at the 800 when 4.6 lengths from the lead, before +1.0 in the mid race and +4.2 last 400, before being picked off by the rock hard fit winner. His PB is a very strong +0.4 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd of the day here over a mile in April before tapering in stakes races. Clearly is best on top of the ground. 

    Subsequently: 6th, 3rd, 2nd then winner Doomben 07/02

    Cinsault
    Randwick
    Jan 24, 2026

    The 1.2 length winner of Race 4

    -1.1 length below benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    Brought up her 2nd win in three runs for the new stable, and while below her best of the night +0.4 win first up at Canterbury, she relaxed better at 1400 than this track/distance 3 weeks earlier when 4th. There she went +2.2 lengths above benchmark at the 800, while here -2.4 despite settling closer in the run. That 4.6 lengths of "stored energy" held her in good stead closing with +0.9 and +1.0 last two section which included a minor length slowdown from the 600 to 200. She picked that up again over the last 200 in a nice sign of tenacity. This is just BM72 company and she can keep working through the grades.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 07/02

    Tom Kitten
    Caulfield
    Feb 22, 2025

    The nose 2nd in Race 7

    +2.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    First up 2nd prep as a gelding, and this luckless serious performance says he's ready to take the next step as an ongoing WFA contender. -1.7 at the 800 had him 4th line, before +1.5 mid race and +3.7 last 400. However the micro splits showed a half length slowdown in traffic from the 400 to 200. This is 1.4 lengths better than his first up win last time in Rosehill 17/09, and he went on to match his PB with +3.1 in the Golden Eagle. Should take a power of beating going forward.

    Subsequently: Winner All Star Mile Flemington 08/03

    REPOST: Winner Caulfield also first up 07/02/26

    Sneaky Sunrise
    Ballarat
    Dec 6, 2025

    The 0.2 length winner of Race 4

    -1.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Broke through for just her 3rd career win and first since June 2024, but here fully fit down to BM74 class, has had an "unlucky victory" with interference from a riderless horse in the straight. -5.2 at the 800 before a solid +9.8 squeeze going +4.7 in the mid race. Last 400 was -3.9 losing -3.4 of that just over the last 200. Her PB is currently -1.1 in a high class mile when beaten 4 lengths by Group 1 winning star TRESURETHE MOMENT and she isn't going to be racing against that class in the summer! Looks set for more wins from here placed conservatively. 

    Subsequently: 2nd Caulfield 20th December. 2nd Flemington 10th January. Then winner Caulfield 07/02

    Oak Hill
    Caulfield
    Jan 24, 2026

    The 0.8 length 2nd in Race 6

    +0.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    Despite being beaten as favourite, this was a super return matching his PB at the end of his last prep when beaten a nose here over 1100, and this was an unsuitable race structure. -2.3 at the 800, before +4.0 from the 800 to 400. That's a significant 6.3 length squeeze in a flying 1000 sprint. Last 400 was +2.5, losing 3.4 lengths over the last 200 as the big exertion told. This was also seen via the best last 600 of the meeting, but just the 27th best last 200. In his last 3 city wins he's peeled off the best last 400 of the meeting, and from here with conditioning benefit can produce similar. 

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield 07/02

    Streisand
    Caulfield
    Jan 24, 2026

    The 2.2 length 5th in Race 3

    -4.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 50th on the day

    Summary

    We put this down to a combination of "kick off run" and "goals ahead" having already qualified for the Blue Diamon with stakes prizemoney in the spring. Settled at the rear of the field settling going just -3.7, but then slowed further as the "anchors" went on up front going -7.1. Her last 400 though was "serious" with +5.0 and +3.8 of that just the last 200. Further context via the 9th best last 600, the 2nd best last 400 and the best last 200 of the day. This sets her up to run very well in the Prelude over 1100 in a fortnight.

    Subsequently: Winner Blue Diamond Prelude Caulfield 07/02

    Ambassadorial
    Flemington
    Dec 31, 2025

    The 1.2 length 3rd in Race 2

    -0.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 7th on the day

    Summary

    Had good market support off a 69 day freshen, first run new stable, after originally starting his career with Waterhouse Bott and winning 3 races for them, and then having 8 runs for Alex Rae which included a nose 2nd at Moonee Valley April on very wet ground. What he showed was excellent speed first section going +7.0 lengths above benchmark at the 800 sitting 2nd line, before -1.2 in the mid race and -2.1 last 400 as the early exertion told. Should be at his absolute top now, and particularly if finding a "fence on" firm summer track, will take a power of catching in similar company from here.

    Subsequently: 2nd Flemington 17/01 then winner Caulfield 07/02

    Port Albert
    Geelong
    Jan 3, 2026

    The 1.9 length 4th in Race 7

    -2.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 34th on the day

    Summary

    Up front this is hardly a confident "stamping", but this 6yo who didn't come up last prep had jumped out very well for his return where he showed very good speed before a big tank out late. +1.5 at the 800, which he matched in the mid race going +1.4. Last 400 was -3.3 and the last 200 in isolation being -2.4 so a complete gas out at the end of 1100 metres. This was also seen via the 11th best last 800 of the day, but just the 40th best last 200. He won at Moonee Valley over 955 October 2024, and perhaps a return to the current equivalent at Cranbourne would be ideal from here???

    Subsequently: Winner 06/02 Cranbourne 955

    Big Red Tequilla
    Randwick
    Dec 27, 2025

    The 0.5 length 3rd in Race 5

    +0.3 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Excellent run and the data strongly suggests she'll be advantaged if asked to step out over longer. Just -6.8 at the 800 asked to settle 3rd line, before +3.3 in the mid race meaning a booming 10 length squeeze, and sustained it home with +4.0 last 400. As she did first up when winning at Kembla with a super +8.1 last 400, produced the best last 800, 600 and 400 of the meeting. That closing speed should see her very hard to hold out from here noting the rail out 8 metres today assisted those on pace.

    Subsequently: Winner Kenso 21/01 then winner Warwick Farm 04/02

    Sovereign Hill
    Canterbury
    Jan 16, 2026

    The 4.8 length winner of Race 6

    +0.4 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the night

    Summary

    First up and came to play after missing 191 days racing. Didn't come up in two runs post gelding, having missed 378 days racing prior, but this performance says the stable now have him in very good order and ready to live up to his early promise when bolting in at Warwick Farm October 2023. Here led cruising going -2.4 at the 800, before +2.9 in the mid race and +3.3 last 400 after very solid market support pre-race. What we liked was the late 1.5 length drop over over the last 200 with the race won. That says more to come, and given this is just BM72 level, he can work through the grades if he remains fit and well.

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 31/01

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.