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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Moonee Valley
August 16
NOW POSTED

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Nellie Leylax
    Moonee Valley
    Aug 9, 2025

    The 1.3 length 2nd in Race 7

    -1.0 length below benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Crying out to win a race after two contrasting lead in 4ths. The first at Rosehill was -2.7 lengths below benchmark but off a brutal lead speed of +8.0 at the 800, while the lead in at Flemington was a similar -2.6, but just -7.6 first section screaming flatness. Here led going +2.8 before "hitting" the softest part of the track with -3.5 from the 800 to 400 and that tanked him out closing with -6.6. However top 4 of the day and beaten by a "serious" performance from RELENTLESS VOYAGER. Should be very hard to stop in similar staying in the 2000 range and particularly if he can find a "fence on" track.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 23/08

    Kerguelen
    Rosehill
    Jul 19, 2025

    The 1.2 length 2nd in Race 10

    -0.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 8th on the day

    Summary

    Consistent gelding having his last run for the Cummings yard, and if he can find a very wet track again, he can return to the winner's circle if he does. Here -2.4 at the 800 when 5.2 lengths from the lead, and that's his "comfort zone" with early speed. +0.9 in the mid race, before +3.1 last 400 showed a good sustained chase. This is his best IVR figure, and perhaps going back up in trip would suit as well as a more "winter like" track. There's a BM78 over 2 or 4 weeks also Rosehill at 1400 and either would be ideal.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 23/08 for Joe Pride

    Jennivamoose
    Moonee Valley
    Aug 9, 2025

    The 1.3 length winner of Race 2

    -4.0 lengths below benchmark ranked 24th on the day

    Summary

    A low IVR figure, but this was a strong win! She's a lightly raced 6yo mare in just her 3rd prep and first with Ciaron Maher, and she had missed 424 days prior to this campaign. What she has shown is an ability to pick up and produce a big mid race off a soft tempo, and sustain a close. This included her 2nd up win Sandown 2400 metres when she ran a booming +9.1 last 400 that included the best last 200 of the day. That is rare for a distance race! Here -14.2, -2.8 and +6.7 with the context an 11.3 length mid race squeeze and the 5th best last 400 of a city Saturday at the end of 2500! Can work through here classes now.

    Subsequently: Winner Moonee Valley 23/08

    Justadeel
    Flemington
    Jul 6, 2024

    The 0.2 length winner of Race 3

    -1.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Started this prep off a short 86 day spell and in a tongue tie and has "step-laddered" in each of his 3 runs. -4.7 first up when 3rd at Pakenham, before 2nd with -3.1 at Sandown in a high pressure 1400 when +0.9 lengths above benchmark early. Here cruised at -6.3 at the 800 when 4.5 lengths from the lead. -1.0 in the mid race, before +3.2 last 400. That was the biggest sprint of his career, and the 2nd best last 600 of the day. Evolving 3yo who can win again at this time of year in similar.

    Subsequently: Missed 13 months racing. First up 2nd Sandown 16/07 before winner 20/08

    Private Eye
    Rosehill
    Nov 30, 2024

    The 3 length winner of Race 8

    +2.2 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Class drop and right race shape and he returned to the winner's list for the first time in 14 months. Shared the lead going -1.5 at the 800, before a 6.2 length slowdown in the mid race going -7.7. Rebounded hard when asked in the straight with a +1.7 last 400 and last bit best bit +2.1 last 200. If they keep him going for the Ingham worth noting despite mainly being a sprinter since, his all time PB was winning the 2021 with a blistering +5.2 on firm going.

    Subsequently: 4th Ingham and spelled. 3rd Stradbroke and spelled. First up winner Lawrence Caulfield 09/08

    Pop Award
    Caulfield
    Jul 26, 2025

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 2

    -0.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Big return! Spelled winning three in a row with the best -3.1 lengths below benchmark, but best of the day Sandown which included an excellent +5.2 last 400 which was the 3rd best of the day from the leading line. As such here has produced a new PB, and while clearly forward in condition, there should still be more to come. -4.3 at the 800, -1.3 in the mid race, before +0.7 last 400 on the fastest part of the track as the exertion told. 4th best last 800 and 600 of the day, with the 9th best last 400. This is just BM78 level, so at this time of year anything above benchmark in a ratings race will be hard to stop from winning again.

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield Regal Roller 09/08

    Arkansaw Kid
    Caulfield
    Aug 17, 2024

    The 0.8 length winner of Race 7

    +1.5 lengths above benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Returned off sharp trials now gelded and with good market support smashed his previous PB which was +0.5 set at Flemington when 2nd to emerging star ESTRIELLA. -3.5 at the 800 and -3.1 in the mid race meant a slow tempo race of little change, but he "let rip" with a +5.8 last 400 to set up the win. Importantly he went +3.7 from the 400 to 200 which was an excellent turn of foot, but tapered going +2.1 last 400. This says more to come conditioning wise and the lack of pressure early should see him avoid flatness going forward. Should be in for an excellent spring.

    Subsequently: 3rd Moonee Valley 07/09 then winner Flemington 14/09.

    Saltcoats
    Rosehill
    Jul 19, 2025

    The 1.2 length 4th in Race 9

    -0.1 length below benchmark ranked 7th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent 2nd up progression from -3.6 lengths below benchmark 9th here a fortnight earlier, noting he did similar last prep when unplaced resuming before winning at Randwick in a BM88 over 1800 mid December with -0.4 lengths below benchmark. -1.9 at the 800 when 3.4 lengths from the lead, before -1.7 in the mid race and +2.7 last 400. His "weapon" is an explosive mid race, and with this IVR figure a new PB he fits the bill as a slow maturing gelding whose best is still in front of him. Perhaps the Premiers Cup Prelude from here Randwick 9th August???

    Subsequently: Winnee Premiers Cup Prelude Kenso 13/08 (postponed from Randwick 09/08)

    Don't Hope Do
    Ballarat
    Dec 7, 2024

    The 2.2 length winner of Race 6

    -1.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 17th on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him from Cranbourne a fortnight earlier when a big closing 3rd and -2.2 lengths below benchmark, stating the stable now have him set to run to his early promise. Here's he's improved 0.6 of a length in winning and the data strongly suggests there's more to come. Led at just -2.0, before benchmark in the mid race and -1.7 last 400. Lost a length last 200 in isolation, and the finish was 8.4 lengths inferior to his resuming run strongly suggesting he's "got away" with a flat run win. This is just BM74 grade, so he's well suited to working through his grades from here.

    Subsequently: 4th, 3rd then 9th and spelled. Resumed winner Moonee Valley 09/08

    Oak Hill
    Caulfield
    May 3, 2025

    The 1.5 length winner of Race 5

    -1.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 10th on the day

    Summary

    First start Team Hayes, but race-fit and only a fortnight since his PB at Echuca in a $500,000 Good Friday sprint, and found a soft tempo sprint which should only mean he remains very hard to beat going forward. -5.9 at the 800 and -2.9 first two sections, before "letting rip" with +6.0 last 400. The true context was the best last 800, 600, 400 and 200 of the day. That's the 6th time in 13 starts he's run the best last 800 of the meeting, and the 4th time in his last 6 starts he's run the best last 200. To date he's failed when stepping beyond 1000, but he's racing so well that 1100 now looks in his scope.

    Subsequently: Winner Moonee Valley 09/08

    Mornington Glory
    Moonee Valley
    Aug 10, 2024

    The 3.8 length winner of Race 5

    +0.1 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    A huge 2nd up rebound from a "nothing" (-8.9) resuming run at Caulfield on very wet ground 4 weeks earlier that reflected the pre-race market support that he was coming to play. -0.1 at the 800, -4.2 in the mid race, before -2.2 last 400 running away. (Last 200 -0.4 last bit best bit.) He's better on firmer ground with a +2.1 up the Flemington straight, a +0.6 also this track/distance and a +1.1 when 3rd in the Oakleigh Plate. Could well beat higher rated sprinters in a Listed/Group 3 on a conditioning advantaged basis next start staying in the shorter course sprints.

    Subsequently: Winner Moonee Valley 24/08. Then winner Group 1 Moir Moonee Valley 07/09.

    Stylish
    Sandown
    Jun 14, 2025

    The 3.3 length winner of Race 4

    -0.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    This was a big win and given it's just BM74 company, it's unlikely to be her last this time in! Came off a "car crash" run in traffic Caulfield a fortnight earlier, after a sound first up win first start Team Hayes Bendigo with -2.8 lengths below benchmark. Here -6.3 at the 800 had her 6 lengths from the lead, +2.7 from the 800 to the 400 meant an excellent 9 length squeeze, before +5.2 last 400. That was the 5th best of the day at the end of 1400. She's always shown glimpses of promise including a best of day win at Bendigo last November with -0.9 lengths below benchmark and looks set to go to a new level this time in.

    Subsequently: 3rd Flemington 05/06 then winner Flemington 02/08

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.