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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Cranbourne Cup form NOW POSTED
November 22
Saturday morning

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    King of Light
    Ascot
    Nov 8, 2025

    The 0.4 length winner of Race 7

    +2.5 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Wow! Unbeaten 3yo who here was 2nd up having his 4th career start, and finding a high pressure race shape on a genuinely firm surface, we got to see what he can really do and it was serious! Sat 4 lengths from the lead at the 800 going +1.9 lengths above benchmark, before unleashing a phenomenal +6.6 mid race and +5.2 last two sections, which even allowing for the firm track is outstanding. In softer tempos on debut Pinjarra 05/07 and first up here 25/10 his closing sprints were +7.9 and +8.2 last 400, and +4.7 and +5.4 last 200. He's a serious horse and will take a power of beating in the Guineas with ordinary luck.

    Subsequently: Winner WA Guineas 22/11

    Gringotts
    Randwick
    Nov 4, 2025

    The 1.2 length winner of Race 5

    -1.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 8th on the day

    Summary

    Was easy to like sole-focussed into this Big Dance Grand Final, and he's gone back to back with a dead set bludge for $1.5 million! -4.5 at the 800 tagging the lead 3.5 lengths, before -3.8 in the mid race so "barely moving". Was in traffic early in the straight, but with the assistance of some Nash Rawiller magic, dashed home with +4.4 last 400, with +3.3 of that over the last 200 when fully clear. He produced +2.1 in his lead in run, and has a PB of +3.7. Whether staying here for the Ingham or heading West for the Railway/Northerly he should remain very hard to beat as he clearly hasn't had a hard run yet.

    Subsequently: Winner Kembla Gong 22/11

    Cosmic Crusader
    Ascot
    Nov 15, 2025

    The 0.3 length 3rd in Race 10

    +1.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Disappointed the market - again - being beaten at odds on - again - but he's produced his all time best IVR figure, and looks set to break through with ordinary luck this Saturday in the Carbine assuming he misses the start in the Railway. -7.9 at the 800 stalking the soft tempo lead pack, before +1.4 in the mid race and +5.5 last 400 when only having full momentum over the last 200. That +4.1 was the 12th best last 200 of the meeting. His 8.5 length demolition at Belmont was on the quick back up 20/09, and there his overall figure was -0.9 best of the day, but with a 16.5 length mid race and +5.1 last 400. More to come.

    Subsequently: Winner Ascot 22/11

    Simply
    Ascot
    Nov 8, 2025

    The one length 2nd in Race 3

    -3.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 48th on the day

    Summary

    Ready! 3rd up here in the apprentice only race jumping from the mile to 2200 metres, and the big squeeze and sustained close said he's ready to run to his best. -9.1 at the 800 when 3.4 lengths from the rock hard fit leader/winner ROYAL LAW, +2.6 in the mid race meant a very solid 11.7 length move, before +4.6 last 400. Last spring this grade he won 3 in a row this track/distance/class with a PB of -0.9 ranked 4th on the day 26/10, in the 3rd of them before tapering. Didn't come up last prep on wet tracks, but is now back in the zone. And a lightweight Perth Cup long range goal for the elite stable???

    Subsequently: Winner Ascot 22/11 at $26!

    Sabaj
    Flemington
    Nov 8, 2025

    The 1.8 length winner of Race 2

    +1.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Horse on the rise 2nd up 2nd start Price Kent off a luckless Randwick lead in when -0.9 lengths above benchmark, but has a PB from his 2nd career start at Morphettville 08/02 with +2.2 over 1200 which he backed up with +1.7 winning over a mile 10/03. Here on very wet ground he cruised early going -1.9 as on-pacers were overdoing it with a +6.5 lead speed. -0.7 from the 800 to 400 saw him maintain as others caved, before -11.8 last 400. His wet track indicator on his first start on affected ground was an excellent +9.5 so he's "ticked that box". We look forward to measuring his progress.

    Subsequently: Winner Cranbourne Cup 15/11

    Weeping Woman
    Rosehill
    Nov 8, 2025

    The 1.2 length winner of Race 9

    Benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent return by the 5yo mare with an already solid winning strike rate, with the data strongly suggesting the best is still ahead. Just -5.3 at the 800 sharing the lead at a soft tempo, before +0.9 in the mid race and +5.8 last 400. This was the 3rd best of the day and the 2nd best of her 14 start career. This is a new level from -0.8 and a new first up best from -1.8. Can produce and cope with more early speed, and given this is just BM78 level, can continue through her grades into the summer. 

    Subsequently: Winner Kembla 15/11

    Spywire
    Rosehill
    Jun 28, 2025

    The 0.4 length 2nd in Race 5

    -0.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    First up now gelded as a late season 3yo, having started his career with a Gold Coast Magic Millions lead in win and 3rd in the Grand Final to STORM BOY, and this return says he's ready to be a "real" racehorse. -3.3 at the 800 stalking the lead, before +1.6 in the mid race and +1.3 last 400. However in traffic he lost a length from the 400 to 200, before an excellent 2.8 length above benchmark last 200 sprint. This points to him breaking benchmark from here, and given this is just benchmark 72 grade, he'll be very hard to stop from going one better.

    Subsequently: 3rd Rosehill 19/07 then winner Doomben 16/08. Resumed winner Kembla 22/11

    Brave One
    Randwick
    Jun 21, 2025

    The 1.7 length winner of Race 3

    -1.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 19th on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced and first prep as a gelding, and here 3rd up finally found clean ground and produced a run that says he'll progress from this BM72 class. (Note his first two runs were top 4 of the meeting, but -3.1 and -4.0 on heavy Canterbury 30/04 and then "knee deep" heavy Randwick 31/05.) Here stalked a modest tempo going -5.8 and -5.2 first two sections which smothered the opportunity to produce more, but an excellent +3.5 last 400 and +2.9 last 200 in isolation. 6th best last 400 and 2nd best last 200 for further context. Should elevate towards benchmark with a more solid tempo.

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 05/07. Spelled first up 2nd Randwick 01/11 then winner Newcastle 15/11

    Meridiana
    Rosehill
    Sep 27, 2025

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 1

    -2.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 42nd on the day

    Summary

    With the obvious caveat that this is Midway company, this mare has resumed with a strong win at just her 5th career run and starting her 2nd prep. -5.2 and -3.7 first two sections meant a cruisey tempo, but an excellent kick down closing with +5.6 last 400. This was the 8th best last 400 and 200 of a strong Group 1 day, and similar to her debut win at Kenso in March with +5.6 when the 2nd best last 400 of the day, and a Listed 4th Randwick 12/04 when +5.5 last 400 which was the 15th best of the elite Derby/Doncaster/TJ Smith/Sires day. More to come!

    Subsequently: 2nd Randwick 01/11 then winner Newcastle 15/11

    Jimmysstar
    Randwick
    Oct 4, 2025

    The 0.6 length 2nd in Race 7

    +4.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Came from +0.3 first up over a 1000 metres, and with a trial to bring him on, he's beaten both his sprinting best - +3.4 winning the Oakleigh Plate over 1100 and all time best winning the All Aged over 1400 with +3.8 lengths above benchmark. Here relaxed early with his Grand Final the Everest going -4.7 lengths below benchmark at the 800 when 7.3 lengths from the lead. +5.4 in the mid race was an outstanding 10.4 length squeeze, and he sustained his speed home going +7.8 last 400. Best last 800, 600 and 400 of the day. Can he cope with near certain higher pressure next start??? Can't stay he won't!

    Subsequently: 3rd Everest 18/10, winner Russell Balding 01/11, winner Orr Caulfield 15/11

    Jimmysstar
    Randwick
    Oct 18, 2025

    The 1.4 length 3rd in Race 7

    +3.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Produced a near identical run to a fortnight earlier when +4.2 lengths above benchmark, but on a much faster race shape. +0.9 at the 800 stalking the lead was 5.6 lengths faster race to race off a standing start. +1.9 in the mid race followed by +3.2 meant a "smoother" race shape as opposed to being asked to produce his booming finish. This can also assist him avoiding flatness into his likely next start in 14 days also here over 1300 metres. His All Aged Stakes win over 1400 in April was with +3.8 lengths above benchmark so the step up holds no fears.

    Subsequently: Winner Russell Balding Randwick 01/11. Winner Orr Caulfield 15/11

    Luana Miss
    Ascot
    Nov 1, 2025

    The 1.8 length winner of Race 8

    +0.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Quality emerging 3yo filly who's now shown she can produce beyond 1000 metres after a dynamic first up win here over the short course 3 weeks earlier when +1.0 length above benchmark. -3.8 at the 800, before +1.4 and +4.2 last two sections. This included both a 1.5 length slowdown before the turn, and last bit best bit +2.7 last 200 in isolation. That ability to relax and quicken says the 1200 in Saturday's Placid Ark should hold no fears, and a more even race shape can see a stronger figure produced. 

    Subsequently: Winner Placid Ark 15/11

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.