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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

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Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Zougotcha
    Rosehill
    Mar 16, 2024

    The 0.3 length winner of Race 8

    +0.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    High quality mare who went on with her brilliant first up win when +1.3 lengths above benchmark, and while she regressed a bit via the IVR times, she's found a tough day to run time, and we expect further improvement from here. +0.2 at the 800, -0.1 in the mid race and +0.8 last 200. Has a PB of a blistering +3.5 set as an autumn filly, and there's no reason she can't touch that from here, making her dangerous ongoing in anything.

    Subsequently: Winner Queen of the Turf Randwick 13/04

    Pride Of Jenni
    Flemington
    Nov 11, 2023

    The 1.3 length winner of Race 7

    +4.6 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Amazing iron mare who backed up a +2.8 lengths above benchmark Empire Rose win Derby Day ranked best of the day, with this +4.6 lengths above benchmark best of the day win just 7 days later. +8.9 at the 800 was very fast, but 6.6 lengths slower than a week earlier! +4.1 mid race before -6.7 last 400. Her best this prep was +5.1 when 2nd in track record time Moonee Valley, so she's doing it and holding it! We look forward to see what happens next prep!

    Subsequently: Spelled and first up 2nd Orr 10/02 then winner All Star Mile 16/03. 2nd Australian Cup 30/03 then winner Randwick QE Stakes 13/04

    Pride of Jenni
    Caulfield
    Feb 10, 2024

    The nose 2nd in Race 9

    +3.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    In going down by a nose to established star MR BRIGHTSIDE, the new iron horse of Australian racing, has smashed her best ever first up run set Sandown last February when benchmark. Led as is usual going +4.4 at the 800, before +5.4 in the mid race so to underline a combined 9.8 lengths above benchmark first 1000 metres. Last 400 was -4.5 and the last 200 in isolation -2.7. So she was short of full fitness (as expected) and hard the fence meant no lane advantage. Looks set to run to her +4.6 to +5.1 range again this prep.

    Subsequently: Winner All Star Mile 16/03. 2nd Australian Cup 30/03 then winner Randwick QE Stakes 13/04

    Territory Express
    Rosehill
    Mar 16, 2024

    The nose 2nd in Race 9

    +2.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    This is a "left field" slow maturing runner with talent! 3rd career prep, only breaking his maiden status last time in with his best being -1.3 lengths below benchmark, and often missing the start. First up Kembla however won with a best of the day +0.4 lengths above benchmark, but his close was a booming 2nd best last 600 and best last 400 and 200, with the IVR last 400 being +6.5. Here +0.6 at the 800 worse than midfield, +0.8 mid race before +3.7 last 400. The last 200 in isolation was +3.0. He's clearly got stakes level ability and has wins ahead.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick $1 million Midway 13/04

    Pride of Jenni
    Flemington
    Mar 30, 2024

    The 0.3 length 2nd in Race 8

    +4.5 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Another amazing run from this new iron horse of Australian Racing, and of a level that states this distance range is of no concern while she keeps racing like this. A blistering +15.5 at the 800, before -0.5 in the mid race, and -5.7 last 400.  Did have a 1.7 length slowdown from the 400 to 200, before rebounding 1.4 lengths last 200 under full pressure trying to hang on, and from a pure data perspective it probably cost her the race. She's matched her Champions Mile win performance from an IVR perspective, but did so at 2000 metres. If going to the Queen Elizabeth she should run very well as "flat run rules" don't seem to apply to her!

    Subsequently: Winner QE Stakes 13/04 Randwick 

    Senegalia
    Flemington
    Mar 30, 2024

    The 0.3 length winner of Race 1

    +0.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    No star, but didn't need to be, nor needs to be at this time of year to win again off this 3rd up run with improvement forecast still to come peaking next start. -0.3 at the 800, before +1.1 in the mid race, and +0.2 last 400. However the 200 increments revealed a sharp spike from the 600 to 400 going +2.5, and still +1.7 from the 400 to 200. Last 200 was a gassed out -1.4 meaning she lost 3.1 lengths despite winning. -2.3 and -3.9 were her first two runs this prep, but the barrier trial 18/03 really brought her on. +0.5 is her PB and she can eclipse that from here. Soft track form is OK.

    Subsequently: Winner Bendigo 13/04 at $15

    Lady Jones
    Caulfield
    Mar 16, 2024

    The 1 length 2nd in Race 7

    -0.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 18th on the day

    Summary

    Good return from a mare who broke her maiden when she posted a big +1.1 best of the Friday night meeting Moonee Valley mile December 2022, but hasn't quite gone on with it despite showing glimpses during that time. -2.0 at the 800, +1.2 in the mid race, and +1.4 last 400. Had a subtle slowdown from the 600 to 400, and lost 0.6 of a length last 200 in isolation. That says she'll get good conditioning benefit from it and test her PB from here. In the autumn off season she's dangerous.

    Subsequently: Winner Bendigo 13/04

    Pride of Jenni
    Caulfield
    Mar 16, 2024

    The 2 length winner of Race 8

    +5.6 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    New Iron mare of Australian racing who after a previous PB of +5.1 when 2nd to AMELIA'S JEWEL at Moonee Valley, before +2.8 and +4.1 in her two Group 1 wins Flemington, has taken herself to a brand new level here. +12.3 lengths above benchmark at the 800 is "insane" for most horses, but not her. It was actually bang in the middle of +15.6 and +8.9 in Melbourne Cup week. +1.5 in the mid race, before -5.9 last 400 in an understandable tank out. Her only previous 2000 run was a "world record" +23.8 first section last April. Now with Declan Bates rating her perfectly, she should run a bold race in the Australian Cup. 

    Subsequently: 2nd Australian Cup 30/03 Flemington. Winner QE Stakes Randwick 13/04

    Benedetta
    Flemington
    Mar 9, 2024

    The 1.7 length 4th in Race 5

    +2.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent 2nd up run elevating from +1.1 at Caulfield first up, and has dragged her all time PB from +1.9 also up the straight last March at 1100 metres. -2.9 at the 800 was typical of her preferred "relaxed" early positioning, +4.9 mid race so an excellent +7.7 squeeze, before +0.2 last 400. Did have a 4 length "flat spot" slowdown from the 400 to 200 which adds merit to the performance. The SA Sangster and Goodwood look ideal Group 1 races to target.

    Subsequently: Winner Group 3 Irwin 13/04  Morphettville 

    Autumn Angel
    Flemington
    Mar 9, 2024

    The 0.2 length winner of Race 6

    -2.0 lengths below benchmark ranked 21st on the day

    Summary

    Evolving staying filly who improved from a luckless Caulfield run with just -6.0 lengths below benchmark, to a narrow win but with more to come. -6.8 at the 800, -1.4 in the mid race, before +0.9 last 400. Beat dual Group 1 winner TROPICAL SQUALL over 2000 at Caulfield on their Cup Day with -1.4 and should sail past that from here. Of note was when 3rd to next start Caulfield Guineas winner GRIFF at Moonee Valley 29/09, she unleashed a booming +8.8 last 400. That closing speed when right is likely to be a big asset. Storm Queen in Sydney from here???

    Subsequently: 2nd Rosehill 06/04 then winner Group 1 AJC Oaks Randwick 13/04

    Captain Envious
    Ballarat
    Dec 9, 2023

    The 2.5 length winner of Race 8

    -0.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him in his -1.2 Caulfield lead in, and here swam through the going to nail his Ballarat Cup target with a wet track indicator of +11.4 so we can label him a "swimmer" going forward. -2.1 at the 800 sitting mid field in a high pressure race shape, before -0.4 mid race and +2.6 last 400. What really impressed was +2.0 last 200 in isolation so the 15th best last 200 of the 10 race card at the end of 2000 metres. This runner emerged as a stayer of promise when 3rd to SOULCOMBE in the 2022 Queen Elizabeth Flemington with -0.7. Didn't come up last prep, but is now in the zone and 2400 range summer stakes races look ideal now.

    Subsequently: Spelled and unplaced Blamey first up 02/03. Winner Easter Cup Caulfield 06/04

    Riff Rocket
    Flemington
    Mar 2, 2024

    The 2.3 length 3rd in Race 8

    Benchmark ranked 8th on the day

    Summary

    Disappointed the market when favourite, but had a differing race shape to first up over 1400 just a fortnight earlier, but more crucially a track that was aerated and very hard to make ground on. -2.6 had him 5.3 lengths from the lead an in the strike zone of a typical day, but then +2.3 in the mid race and that was 7 lengths more than his resuming run that section. Last 400 was +0.5 which is well below his usual explosive finish. Would be no surprise if he rebounds hard from this either up to a Rosehill Guineas or possibly freshened for a Doncaster tilt. 

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill Guineas 23/03. Winner AJC Derby 06/04.

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.